On October 8th, 2022 Ukrainian armed forces attacked the bridge joining Russia to Crimea (i.e., the Kerch bridge). The act can be described as nothing less than an act of terrorism. Committed by Ukrainian intelligence agencies with the full support of Washington together with its allies in NATO, the terrorist act represents a significant escalation of the war in Ukraine.

In a speech televised Alarabiya (i.e., ” العربية ” ), Vladimir Putin vowed to retaliate. In Russian, Putin stated the following: “We will deliver a massive blow with long distance high precision weapons fro the land, sea, and air on Ukrainian energy, military or communications targets. In the event Ukraine continues to engage in acts of terrorism, Russia’s response will be severe and shall be made in a degree to which the Russian Federation is threatened. Let there be no doubt about it.”[1]

The Qatar news channel Aljazeera (which broadcasts information in Arabic completely different from that of its English Channel) reported on in Arabic channel a full overview of Russia’s retaliation. Aljazeera reported attacks by 43 cruise missiles, 13 drones, 10 kamikaze drones, while Zelensky himself is reported as as claiming Russia targeted a playground in the capital. All in all, Aljazeera reported Russia targeting no less than 143 targets overall.

Russia’s retaliation against Ukraine for the bombing of the Kerch bridge represents a major escalation of the war. While it is true, as Ukrainian and Western intelligence have previously reported, and the Institute for the Study of War now reports, that Russia has spent a significant portion of its high-precision missiles, and Putin likely knows better than Medvedev or the milbloggers that he cannot sustain attacks of this intensity for very long.” [2] These reports, however, fail to take into consideration Russia’s overall calculus.

Russia’s Political Calculus

Russia’s political calculus rests on an understanding of a few key factors in the developing objective reality of Ukraine. Generally, Ukraine is in a deep state of crisis.

The first consideration of Ukraine’s crisis is without a doubt Ukraine’s economy. Ukraine was already Europe’s poorest country with more than 60% of its population living below the national poverty line even before the war began in February this year, but more than seven months of conflict has taken a devastating toll on Ukraine’s economy. The war has exacerbated the terrible living conditions of the less than two thirds of the original population of 44 million that did not flee.

In an article published on the website https://inosmi.ru (ИноСМИ.ru (от «Иностранные СМИ»)) entitled “Планы Путина сбываются: в ВСУ не хватает солдат, военный бюджет Украины исчерпан” (Putin’s Dream Comes True: Ukrainian Armed Forces Lack Soldiers, Ukraine’s Defense Budget is Exhausted), Kadzukhiko Fudzi, a Japanese expert in Russo-Japanese affairs, described how Ukraine’s economy is incapable of sustained, continued, unrelenting war with Russia.

“Russia’s special operation has led to a situation in which Ukraine’s spending spending increased from 250 million dollars in February to 3.3 billion dollars in May and continues to rise exponentially. Currently, defense spending is around 40% of all expenditures in Ukraine’s budget.”

As a result of its defense spending, Ukrainian lawmakers reduced expenditures on everything but the war. Inflation is at 20% or more. The National Bank of Ukraine ( hereinafter NBoU, which purchased nearly 8 billion dollars worth of government bonds, is printing money. UBoU recently admitting to expending no less than 2.3 billion dollars, or, what is the same, 9% of its overall currency reserves in June, 2022. The Ukrainian currency, the Hryvnia, is fixed now at a reduced rate. After the beginning of Russia’s further invasion of Ukraine, the official exchange rate of the Hryvnia was fixed at ₴29.25 per 1 US dollar and ₴33.17 per 1 Euro. On July 21, 2022, the rate devalued to ₴36.92 per 1 US dollar. [4]In addition, none of Ukraine’s major pre-war industries continue to operate where the war itself has caused destruction to the country’s productive capacity, damaged its arable land, and reduced labour supply.

Overall, Ukraine’s economy shrank by an estimated 30% in the first three quarters of 2022 compared with the same period in 2021. Much more precise measurements set the rate of contraction at no less than an estimated 35%. [5] In a recent statement, for instance, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal has estimated that Ukraine will likely face a $38 billion budget deficit in 2023. Odile Renaud-Basso, the president of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), the largest institutional investor in Ukraine, stated recently in an interview how Ukraine’s economy will collapse “without financial support in the amount of $3 billion a month.” [6]

With a rapidly accelerating defense budget, unruly inflation, the nearly exhausted reserves of currency, its exceedingly devalued currency, the collapse of its major industries in the economy, its complete dependence upon foreign aid, the Russian ruling elite likely speculates that there is absolutely no reason to think Ukraine is capable of relying solely upon the handouts of Washington, the International Monetary Fund, or other Western backers alone to continue prosecuting NATO’s proxy war much longer, let alone through the end of the year.

To make matters worse, Ukraine, whose most advanced weaponry comes from abroad, is incapable of maintaining, repairing, or equipping any of its weapons, let alone assisting with the supply of their munitions. Although the United States of America recently announced plans to station a complex for the manufacturer of munitions, weapons, or heavy weaponry in Wiesbaden, Germany, the factory is not scheduled to begin production any time soon. It is, nonetheless, heavily reliant upon foreign powers for their arms to be replenished with new munitions.

Russia is hedging its bets on the Democrats’ loss of the Senate and the House in November’s Midterm election, while simultaneously forging relationships with Saudi Arabia’s Crowned Prince to keep the price of gas, oil and coal as high as possible so as to continue to reap enormous profits for the sale of these raw materials. Alongside Russia’s expectations for a MAGA republican victory in November’s Midterm elections is the real possibility that these MAGA Republicans will prepare for Donald J Trump to become the next president through an election or a successful coup d’etat.

Last but not least, Russia, whose military equipment is primarily thermal (i.e., heat seeking), fares much better in Winter than does Ukraine, whose foreign weapons are not designed to withstand freezing temperatures. In the months of November, December, January, February, and March, there is little expectation among Russians that Ukraine, which is still reliant upon Russia’s gas to heat its population, is capable of continuing its counterattacks, let alone a deeper excursion into the depths of the four regions of annexation which are declared to be a part of Russia now.

Overall Russia seeks to exploit these factors in agamble for a favorable outcome to the war. Russia, however, is not the only country who looks upon the Ukraine as a prize for the taking. European commentators are already speculating on the role other European powers like Poland may play in the event that Russia is able to isolate the rest of Ukraine from Black Sea region, a region of immense the geopolitically and strategic economic significance for its waterways, and control and access to raw materials such as grain.

The Turkish commentator Mehmet Barlas, who recently published an article in the Turkish daily, Sabah, pointed to Ukraine as an example of what happens to countries that support the United States of America. In his article entitled “Kırım Köprüsü’nün havaya uçurulması ne anlama geliyor?,” Barlas explains how Ukraine no longer exists in any real sense of the word, especially after other European powers take part in the aftermath of a Russian victory.

In a play on words against Zelensky, who is the recipient of a British passport in a country that protects one of his many multimillion dollar properties, Barlas wrote: “Ukraine’s comic head of state, Zelenksy, now plays a tragedy, saying, “I burned so the whole world burns.” [7]

Later in the article, Barlas explains what is to happen to Ukraine, should the war continue. “Experts in Russian affairs know that Ukraine will not exist in any sense of the word. After Russia cuts [Ukraine] off from the sea, Poland will seize the Western parts of the Country. It is for this reason that the Ukraine is a contemporary example of what happens to countries that support the United States of America. It must serve as an example for all the countries of the world, especially those of Europe.”

References

1. [“Нанесем массовый удар с высокоточным оружием большой дальности из воздушного, морского, и земляного базирования по объектам энергетики, военного управления, и связи Украины. В случае продолжения попыток проведённых на нашей территории террорактов, ответы с стороны России будут жесткими и по своим масштабам будут соответствовать уровню угроз создаваемых Российской Федерации. Ни у кого не должно быть никаких в этом сомнений.” ~ ” بوتين يهدد أوكرانيا بضربات أشد قسوة.. وكييف ترد: سننتقم ” ; alarabiya.net, October 10th, 2022]
2. [“Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 10 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/, October 10, 2022]
3. [“Российская спецоперация привела к тому, что военные расходы Украины увеличились с 250 миллионов долларов в феврале нынешнего года до 3,3 миллиарда долларов в мае и продолжают стремительно расти. Сейчас они составляют около 40% расходов бюджета.” ~ “Планы Путина сбываются: в ВСУ не хватает солдат, военный бюджет Украины исчерпан” ; https://inosmi.ru, August 6th, 2022]
4. [Ukraine Devalues Hryvnia to Adjust to War-Time Economic Reality; bloomberg.com, July 21, 2022]
5. [Ukraine’s economy shrank by 30% in first three quarters of 2022; reuters.com, October 8, 2022]
6. [The Battle to Save Ukraine’s Economy From the War; foreignpolicy.com, October 5th, 2022]
7. [“Ukrayna’nın komedyen Cumhurbaşkanı Zelensky artık trajedi oynuyor ve “Ben yandım bütün dünya da yansın” diyor. ~ “Kırım Köprüsü’nün havaya uçurulması ne anlama geliyor?” ; Sabah, October 9, 2022]
8. [“Rusya’yı tanıyan yorumcular, bilinen manasıyla bir Ukrayna’nın kalmayacağını söylüyorlar. Rusya, Ukrayna’nın deniz ile bağlantısını kestikten sonra Polonya’nın da Batı’dan kalan bölgelerini ele geçireceği iddia ediliyor.” diyor. ~ ibid.]