On Sunday evening social media channels together with Russian military bloggers began to announce that Russian forces penetrated Ukraine’s first line of defensive protecting the city of Chasiv Yar in the Bakhmut-Artemovsk direction.
On March 27th, 28th, and 31st, Russian news agencies reported that the Russian army advanced to more advantageous positions, a key phrase the Russians repeat frequently as an understatement, as it advances to key strategic aspects of a territory.
Russia’s sudden advance and the immediate expulsion of Ukrainian armed forces from the first line of defense was sudden and unexpected, sending shock waves throughout Ukraine’s already extremely demoralized military leadership, especially since Chasiv Yar has continued to be an impenetrable stronghold from the day Evgeny Prigozhin’s PMC Wagner Group tried to sack the city. It has remained along with Avdiivka one of Ukraine’s major Donetsk fortresses. Heavily fortified after the fall of Bakhmut-Artemovsk, Chasiv Yar is by far the most important city after Slavyansk and Kramatorsk.
After penetrating the first line of defense, the Russian army began to seize high ground surrounding the city, including hills and heights located to the city’s east. On these high grounds, as the Russian army has done in the past, the Russian army will establish various strongpoints with which to create an extendable fire zone. Russian bloggers, who are not native English speakers, have begun to designate the area, in which Ukrainians are ‘holed up’ within an extendable fire zone, a ‘cauldron,’ a fire pit. Trapped by advancing Russians from multiple sides, the defenseless Ukrainians become subject to attack by drones, artillery, or glide bombs, unless retreating backwards. In a Russian report from March 27th, 2024, entitled,”ВС России взяли под огневой контроль окраину Часова Яра,” the authors mention how “часть украинских позиций находится в прямой видимости, и за действиями противника можно наблюдать без оптических приборов.” In English the following translates as: “part of the Ukrainian positions are within eyeshot and any move the enemy makes can be easily seen without optics.”
Russian military bloggers have hailed the fall Chasiv Yar as a domino whose affect on Slavyansk and Kramatorsk, the two largest cities in Donetsk, is immediate.
After the first line of defense fell, Russian armed forces implemented a three prong plan to envelope the city. The advance, which is currently underway, is coming in from three directions from the North-East, East and South-East in coordinated mass sector. Coordinated mass sector attacks (cmsa) are attacks designed to break an entire line at any weak point. According to the most recent reports, Ukrainian military cartographers have already mapped out Russia’s cmsas.
Russia’s three prong attack comes after its air forces significantly degraded Ukraine’s defense systems. In a recently made post on Twitter, one of the Arabic language bloggers noted that Russian armed forces struck Ukrainian air defense systems with missiles in the Kharkov axis.
The strike, eliminating more than three S-300 anti air defense systems, added to multiple destroyed air defense systems already struck in the weeks leading up to Russia’s three prong attack.
Ukraine’s military, which is reported as having repelled a Russian sized battalion in the Avdiivka axis, remains a lethal fighting force. The Ukrainians whom the West exploited as cannon fodder have been all but abandoned by Western leaders, who have refused to supply, equip or fund Ukraine’s now illegitimate Zelensky regime. March 31st, 2024 passed without Constitutionally mandated elections.
On March 24th, 2024, the ISW published a prediction about Chasiv Yar, stating: “Russian forces are reportedly approaching the outskirts of Chasiv Yar, Donetsk Oblast but are unlikely to threaten the settlement with encirclement or seizure in the coming months.” However, the author expressed the formula in the inverse. “RuAF are likely to threaten the settlement with encirclement or seizure in the coming days or weeks.”
The ISW stated further:”The seizure of Chasiv Yar would offer Russian forces limited but not insignificant operational benefits if they could achieve it.” It is the author’s point of view that it is from the standpoint of strategy rather than tactics or operations that the seizure of Chasiv Yar would offer.
“ISW assesses that a Russian seizure of Chasiv Yar would be more operationally significant than the Russian seizure of Avdiivka, but reiterates that ISW does not forecast that Russian forces will take Chasiv Yar rapidly if they can take it at all.” It is the author’s point of view that the Russians will take Chasiv Yar rapidly. It is unclear why the fall of Chasiv Yar would be operationally more significant than Avdiivka.
