Recent developments surrounding the 2023 Israeli invasion of the Gaza Strip have begun to underscore the degree to which Syria, one of many countries affected by the 2011 Arab Spring, is witnessing the country’s subversion into a veritable powder keg by the great powers.
On March 1st, 2024, the social media channel @Roaastudies released a series of videos displaying Syrian security forces in plain clothes in the South Western #Syrian city of #Suweyda, a Druze village. The security forces are seen standing behind Soviet era heavy machine guns mounted in the back of classic Toyota diesel powered pick up trucks called Hiluxes, one of the most famous and iconic images of armed struggle in the southern Levant. At least one of the Syrian security forces are mounted on horseback with a Kalashnikov in one hand pointing upward to the sky. He is seen firing randomly in the air to disperse thickening crowds.
The protests in #Suweyda, which is not primarily Alawaite, depict protesters destroying pictures of Syrian President Bashar Al Assad in the city’s major centers. In one of the videos shared in the @Roaastudies’ post is from the Syrian news agency Alrased (i.e., الرصد), which featured a large story on the events leading up to the outbreak of protests throughout, protesters are seen carrying a flag other than Syria’s national flag, indicating that anti-regime sentiments among many layers of the population are beginning to express discontent with the Assad regime.
In an article entitled, “قرار مرتقب بفصل ٢٢ موظفا في السويداء,” Alrased (i.e., الرصد) claimed that the protest arose in response to Al-Assad’s decision to dismiss government employees from several positions throughout the city. While the article mentions number of government employees to be dismissed at 22, the number is likely much higher. It appears as though Al-Assad, whose position Russian got help re-establishing through a successful defense of his regime over the course of eight years of civil war, is conducting a carefully planned purge in anticipating of mounting pressure throughout the region، as Israel’s continuation of the 2023 invasion of the Gaza Strip continues to threaten to engulf the entire region from the northern Levant to the Red Sea in a major regional war with global consequences.
It is likely that Al-Assad, whose regime is dependent upon Russia’s dominating influence in the country for its continued survival, initiated the purge in anticipation of the changes the regime must make in order to assume the posture Russian envisions the country has the opportunity to take with Israel pinned down, on the one hand, by the International Court of Justice by an order of the Court, or by two widening fronts, the most dangerous of which is the one with Lebanon’s Hizbollah, whose arsenal of missile is so plentiful as to be capable of overwhelming Israel’s limited anti-missile defense systems.
In this regard, there are three interrelated processes that are beginning to converge on Syria that Russia’s successful defense against various anti-Assad factions created. 1) The military rivalry separating Russia’s armed forces from American is beginning to take shape. Russia’s appointment of a new general to Syria in July 2022 appeared to be directly directly at countering America’s presence in the country, as an article published on July 4th, 2022 by the news agency, תיק דבקה, indicates. [1]
2) Russia’s decision to embed significant effort in the construction of short or long range anti-air defense systems is reaching a new phase. An article published on October 2nd, 2018 by the news agency, תיק דבקה, indicates that Russia’s General, Sergey Shoigu, completed the installation of a Russia S-300 anti-air defense system to Syria. While the S-300 anti-air defense system has been in place in Syria for more than five years, the system is responsible for a heightened responsiveness to incoming mortar, artillery, rocket, or missile attacks on Syria. It is likely that Russia is continuing to expand its protection of Syria’s skies now that Israel is fully engaged with wars both within as well as on its borders, complicating its ability to plan, deploy, or strike around the wider Mideast. [2]
3) Russia’s decision to assert greater control over Syria’s airspace, which appears to be the overall aim of these three processes, is drawing it into heightened tensions with America. An article published on April, 29th, 2023 by the news agency, תיק דבקה, indicates.[3] During the battle of Bakhmut-Artemovsk, Russia’s air forces began to circle American military installations in Syria, circling these installations on Fridays.
These three military processes, which are a continuation of policy with means other than diplomacy, are beginning to converge with greater results, as the overall outcome for Russia appears to be the establishment of full air superiority throughout Syria’s skies.
A most recent video posted by Al-Mayadeen from 2023 shortly after Russia laid seize to the embattled city of Bakhmut-Artemovsk displays the Russian military engaged in a military exercise with Syria’s army at night for the first time. Dubbed the first night exercise in an article published by the Russian language version of Russia’s RT channel (i.e., “لاول مرة… قوات روسية وسورية تجري مناورات ليلية في محافظة”), the exercise appears to have been the first night exercise. The exercise displays Russian forces operating in tandem with Syria’s army on three levels (i.e., air, sea, sky). It is clear from this 2023 military exercise that Russia’s continued military presence in Syria is aimed at projecting its power throughout Syria, if not the region.
During the past two weeks, Russia invited the various ruling factions of the Gaza Strip together with their counterparts in the Palestinian Authority to Moscow in an effort to broker the facilitation of a unified Palestinian government, an affront to Israel’s insistence upon asserting control over the conquered divisions. To the extent that neither Hamas nor Fatah are able to come to terms on a unity government, their divisions provide Israel an opportunity for exploitation. Russia’s decision to host the factions in Moscow for the establishment of a unity government is a unique approach to the Palestinian factions that none of the Arab states appear to have a willingness to advance. There does not appear to have been an attempt, at least not recently, among Arab states to unify the Palestinians.
Israel’s 2023 invasion of the Gaza Strip, which recently witnessed pitched battles in the neighborhood of Zaytoun with over 92 attacks by Hamas over the course of Israel’s 11 day operation, reached a high point against the backdrop of the so-called “Flour Massacre” most recently.
Russia’s decision to host the factions in Moscow for the establishment of a unity government before the head of Russia’s intelligence service claimed that Israel’s failure to investigate the terrorist organization, Hamas, prior to the October 7th, 2023 terrorist massacre of innocent Israeli civilians represented a major failure of intelligence for Israeli intelligence. The author believes that the part of the blame for Hamas’ ability to execute Operation Typhoon stemmed from Israel’s own intelligence failures, especially its failure to investigate the source of ammonium nitrate Hamas exploited for the creation of its Yaseen 105 mm artillery shells. In articles published by the print edition of מעריב in December and January the topic is discussed at the highest levels of the Israeli government.
Israel’s response, which was not widely covered in the Israeli press, to Russia’s decision to host the factions in Moscow for the establishment of a Palestinian unity government was to warn that Russo-Israeli relations would worsen. The Russian news information agency (i.e., РИА Новости) published an article detailing how the head of Israel’s ruling party, Amir Weitman, expressed the opinion that Israel’s position with respect to Russia would become ‘aggressive.'[4]
Russia’s response to the 2023 Israeli invasion of the Gaza Strip worsens its relations with Israel against the backdrop of the Ukraine war. Prior to the second anniversary of the Ukraine war, Israel consistently maintained, especially in the immediate aftermath of Russia’s further invasion of Ukraine, a stance of neutrality with respect to Ukraine’s armed forces, refusing on several occasions to engage in any form of military cooperation. Israel, for instance, refused to share information with Ukrainian armed forces related to its famous anti-Grad rocket air defense system, the Iron Yarmulke. Israel’s only act of interference in the Ukraine war prior to the second anniversary became the assassination of high ranking members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corp for their role in the sale of various types of Shahed drones. With Russia’s decision to host the establishment of a unity government for Palestinian factions, Russo-Israeli relations are expected to witness 1) Israeli willingness to play a more active role in the Ukraine war together with 2) an expansion of the Israeli intrigue in Syria, to which the events in Suweyda may be but a foreshadow.
Syria is one of the most complicated regions in the Levant, if not the wider Mideast, due to the number of competing nation-states fully engaged military on its territory together with the Kurds, many aspects of which are associated with various Syrian oppositions groups from time to time. The Syrian opposition groups, whose receipt of foreign weaponry is extremely well documented throughout the press, compound the cross-loyalties. Turkey’s presence in northern Syria’s Aleppo province, the site of Russia’s bombing campaign, underscores just how fragile the complicated situation in Syria is, as Russia is a major trade partner with Turkey, not opposed to the suppression of Kurdish national aspirations, while Turkey is a NATO member state whose military actions come under the influence of the alliance, which is inimical to Russian interests in the Ukraine.
With so many modern conventional military power packed into such a small region governed by an weakened ruler, Syria is quickly becoming one of the many powder kegs competing nation states are packing full of munition, ammunition or weapons, as the 2023 Israeli war continues to rage against the backdrop of the Ukraine war. The present of so much conflicting military might portends the ominous outcome that within a second, minute, hour, week, or month the precarious balance of mutually assured refusals to engage suddenly witnesses tipped scales.
[1] – [גוברת המתיחות בין הכוחות האמריקניים והרוסיים במזרח סוריה. מוסקבה העבירה את אחד המפקדים הבולטים של הצבא הרוסי באוקראינה לאזור, תיק דבקה, 07.04.2022]
[2] – [שר ההגנה הרוסי גנרל שויגו לנאשיא פוטין : השלמנו את העברת מערכות ס-300 לסוריה עוד ביום שני, תיק דבקה, 10.08.2018]
[3] – [מפקד חיל האוויר האמריקני במזרח התיכון: גוברת סכנת ההתנגשות בין מטוסים אמריקנים ורוסיים בסוריה, תיק דבקה, 04.29.2023]
[4] – [“Представитель израильской правящей партии “Ликуд” Амир Ватман высказал мнение, что позиция Израиля по отношению к России будет более агрессивной.” ~ РИА Новости, March 1st, 2024]