Ariel Plotnik
In the Ancient Greek language of the West’s predecessor is the word “ἀγωνία” or agony in English. Agony is the terminal state of the body preceding the onset of death, which is associated with the activation of compensatory mechanism aimed at preventing the extinction of the vital forces of the body, limbs and sinews. What is happening in Ukraine is a terminal state of capitalism, preceding the onset of death where the bodies, limbs, or sinews of workers are being blown to bits with the most advanced weaponry yet exploited for the purposes of mayhem, death, and destruction not seen since the outbreak of World War II.
Based on what has transpired thus far, there is absolutely no objective reason to believe that Americans or their allies within the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) ever thought the Ukrainian people could reasonably be said to be engaged in a struggle for self determination, let alone a struggle in which any expectation of success could have ever reached a probability commensurate with the history, theory or practice of modern warfare. There is every reason to believe, on the contrary, that on the basis of deliberate lies, extensively developed propaganda or pervasive deception, the United States and its imperialist allies in Europe’s NATO coerced a further invasion of Ukraine with the goal of goading Russia into a massive escalation of the Ukraine conflict from a national war into an international, global, or world war. The escalation threatens nothing less than the breakdown of relations across the globe to a point hitherto-fore unimaginable, nuclear warfare.
The provocation of Russia is a significantly deepened global historical process, which has its roots, on the one hand, in the successful coup d’etat of the former Ukrainian regime’s democratically elected pro-Russian leader in 2014 with the support of far right fascists, while, on the other hand, in the advanced state of decay at the centre of global capitalism, America, whose liberal bourgeois democracy is tobogganing on the verge of collapse with the failure to indict Donald J Trump for a failed attempt to seize the White House during his January 6 insurrection following his rejection by both the Electoral College and the popular vote, while the economy, which is slashing jobs, witnesses successively increasingly rising levels of inflation, while the living standards of the vast majority of working people continues to decline sharply.
As the war continues, no one may deny how evident the fate of Ukraine is to United States within the context of its expanding struggle for global hegemony. The Biden administration instigated the war, driving Putin — who up until the last minute hoped that he could talk his companions within the G7 into making reasonable concessions to the Russian state’s “national security” — from extremely reluctant hesitation to enter into war for which Russia appeared to be poorly prepared (both from a military and political standpoint). What is surprising is that Putin and his military command appear not to have fully grasped the extent to which NATO armed and trained Ukraine’s military, albeit with the exception that the United States of America’s involvement is now proceeding on multiple levels from the existence of ground troops to command and control centers. But this failure of Russia’s intelligence services derives from the Stalinist dissolution of the Soviet Union, which sought to advance wildly unrealistic, almost childishly naïve, conceptions of the imperialist system. While repudiating all association with Marxism, the Kremlin retained its faith in the possibility of “peaceful coexistence” with its Western Partners. Putin, shortly before ordering the invasion, complained pathetically that Russia had been “played” by the West.
After having been played, Russia, in all reality, is emerging with heightened responsiveness, while the Ukrainian war itself may not escape an objective analysis of its current status.
Based on the foregoing reasons, Russia is set to emerge as the predictable victor in the Ukraine war against Ukrainian forces as they are now, as no military strategist in the West or the European Union may ignore the factors in its economy, its alignment of forces, or the recent achievements of the Russian military, despite it disastrous losses.
1. Russia’s centuries old history of military culture, theory and practice and its reliance upon a highly centralized, informed command structure that has been strengthened, and continues to operate.
2. Russia’s economy is a now transformed into a war economy with a focus on the development of weaponry for the war effort in a way Ukraine or NATO countries can’t, and evidence of it’s successful plight as a war economy is it’s strengthened Ruble. To the demise of its own workers, who have recently become the object of a series of orders designed to advance the war effort over their own rights, Russia has implemented work requirements for factories to replace, replenish or repair weaponries.
3. The demonstrated ability to coordinate air, land, and sea together with mobilized Blitzkrieg in tank, artillery or drones is a clear indicator of continuous forward operability that neither Ukraine nor NATO have achieved and cannot achieve with the conglomeration of different forces, veterans of the United States of America’s armed forces, agents of the Central Intelligence or the different types of Ukrainian forces, at times, Neo-Nazis, at other, proponents of NATO and the European Union.
4. The ability to withstand losses such as the loss of generals and the loss of men but still maintain high morale and a fighting ethic is a key Ukraine and NATO lack.
5. NATO forces are disorganized and incapable of articulating a goal; the idea that one could hoist it’s supply chain logistics for continuous forward operability on donations from neighboring countries is a reflection of wishful thinking rather than military prowess and Ukraine’s military currently depends on nothing but donations.
6. The sixth and final reason is that wars are decided by decisive battles and no decisive battle has been won in any recognizable strategy effectuated by NATO or Ukraine, and the key victories Ukrainians achieved are prophylactic like blowing up the Murshka, seizing Snake Island or the assassination of high ranking generals.
In light of Russia’s advance, the state of Russia’s ruble, its military victories over the cities of Mariupol or Severodonetsk, or Russia’s transformation into a war economy, the state of the Ukraine military forces, which is shedding hundreds of bodies daily, is set to collapse within the next weeks or months, demanding for fresh blood from workers in neighboring nations for its continued death agony. European Union’s ruling elites within NATO and in the United States of America, which has invested the equivalent of more than 40 unicorn startups (i.e., 40 billion dollars) into the Ukrianian war effort, are aware of Ukrainian force’s impending collapse and Russia imminent victory against those forces, and the drive to expand the escalation of its Russian provocation is accelerating at a heightened pace.
In that respect, European forces, which are attempting to keep face in light of the complete breakdown of the Ukrainian military, continue to propagandize “optimism” for Kyiv that a “breakthrough” may finally be imminent. The European Commission, for instance, announced on June 17 that it recommends candidate status for Ukraine. During a visit to the Ukrainian capital one day earlier, the leaders of France, Germany, Italy and Romania all voiced their support for Ukraine’s bid.
After tweeting from her personal account about the accepted admission applications, “today is a good day for Europe,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen explained that the decision strengthens Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, “in the face of Russian imperialism,” where clearly the emphasis on Russian imperialism vis-a-vis Moldova or Georgia is to be seen entirely from the perspective of the Ukraine war: the European ruling elites have no problem securing admission of those countries into the European Union as long as their respective ruling elites offer fresh blood from among members of the working class.
With Ukraine’s acceptance into the European Union, the European Union’s ruling elites, on the other hand, are preparing the initial groundwork for a public justification for a further provocation of Russia. Undoubtedly, the ruling elites in France, Germany, Italy, or Romania seek to advance Ukraine’s candidacy as a <i>casus belli</I> for their own entrance into the war. In terms of the already extremely advanced preparation in the countries surrounding Ukraine, Poland stands out now for its armaments.
It is the opinion of the Left Opposition, which is preparing to change its name to the District Assembly of Eastern California (i.e., an English translation of Trotsky’s Межрайо́нцы — члены «Межрайонной организации объединённых социал-демократов»), that a major, perhaps even decisive, tank battle of the Ukrainian war is set to take place within the city of Lviv, the largest city in Western Ukraine. Formerly a part of the Polish empire, the city Lvov may yet play host to a scene of struggle.
Based on the concentration of munitions, heavy artillery, tanks in Poland and Poland’s relative proximity to Ukraine, Polish armaments reveal an extremely explosive powder keg of weaponry. Poland, for instance, has purchased more than 250 M-1 Abrams tanks. Already composed of German Panzer 2 tanks, Soviet T-72 tanks (which are most likely to enter the front ranks as a soft pad) and British Challenger 2 tanks, Poland’s arsenal of mobilized, mechanized, armored tanks is the largest force yet assembled among the besieged former commonwealth’s country’s immediate neighbors. Poland’s armaments therefore portend the outbreak of a major tank battle.
Since Lviv, the largest city in Western Ukraine and one of the most populous, is of geopolitical significance for its resources, the impending tank battle there is set to be one of the greatest scenes of human destructive forces yet recorded in the annals of world war. The Lviv or Lvov region, which is rich in natural resources – oil, natural gas (hazonosna Carpathian region), coal (Lviv-Volyn coal basin) peat, deposits of potash and rock salt, sulfur, mineral waters and mud, is of key strategic interest alongside the Black Sea Region.
While Russia’s forces engagement in Ukraine results in a reduction of its forces in Syria, Israel continues to benefit immensely from Russia’s continued engagement in securing the Black Sea region. Following Russia’s further invasion into the Donbas, the Israeli military intelligence agencies have been carefully examining Russian concomitant reduction in manpower, equipment, or activity within the environment of Bashar Al-Asad’s stronghold in the Syrian city of Damascus.
Recently, Israeli military intelligence agencies determined that Russia’s reduction in support for Bashar Al-Asad’s regime is slight enough to enable Israeli to advance its interests in opposition to those of Russia within the battle torn county.
While Russia maintains one of its last remaining, although heavily fraught, naval bases off the Western coast of Syria called Tartus, Tartu is connected to the geopolitically strategic Black Sea region itself. Tartus is logistically significant instrument of Russia’s sphere of influence within Syria. Currently under construction, the port of Tartus is the starting point for a line of railway whose ultimate objective terminates within Iran. The Persian railway, connecting Iran through Syria, is undoubtedly a military target for Israeli military intelligence, whose opposition to the expansion of Iranian military capabilities is no secret.
It is highly likely that at the time Russia becomes engaged in a major tank battle against Western NATO forces in the city of Lviv or its environs, Israel may plan a strategic attack designed to ensure the port’s or the railway’s partial destruction. The partial destruction of the port through a strategic Israeli attack would, 1) on the one hand, disable Russia’s ability to dock or supply within Syrian, while, on the other hand, 2) requiring Russia to divert attention away from its operability to its restoration, a significant reduction in its military prowess. It is more likely that a strategic attack designed to appear as a malfunction of a piece of heavy machinery on or near the dock or railways would take place in absence of a trace of Israeli forces. Masters of sabotage, the Israelis would likely design the attack in such a way that no obvious clue would implicate its forces but whose origin no serious Middle Eastern military analyst could ever doubt.
The strike would necessarily take place at the exact point in time when Russian military forces are completely engaged in a major decisive battle like the one in the scenario for Lviv. An attack on Tartus’ port may be the straw that breaks the camel’s back for Russia and its nuclear armed arsenal. Whatever the likely scenarios may be, the Ukrainian war and the collapse of Ukrainian forces vis-a-vis Ukraine’s admission into the European Union portend the expansion of the deadly Ukraine war.
Internally, the war in Ukraine, however, is affecting Russia not just in terms of the Ruble, its economy or its populous but its ruling circles. Ramzon Kadiroff, for instance, recently concluded an openly argumentative debate with Russia’s Secretary of State, Peskov, over who is the most patriotic, a debate that took place against the backdrop of Chechniya’s entrance into the war as a separate military force apart from Russia’s own that has announced its own separate successes. With reports of Vladimir Putin’s health failing, the possibility of a palace coup or an unpredictable change in the status quo may lead to the assumption of power by a head of the Russian state much worse than any prior leader. Changes in Russia’s central command reflect the internal power struggle playing itself out in the promotion of one general over another. The recent demotion of Dvornikov, allegedly for the sake of drunkness, over the promotion of Serevkin, the former leader of Russia’s Air Force, exemplifies the struggle for influence, while reports of Putin’s worsening health continue to air.
In Trotsky’s Death Agony of Capitalism and the Tasks of the Fourth International, Trotsky states: “In the next period a revolutionary party will depend for success primarily on its policy on the question of war. A correct policy is composed of two elements: an uncompromising attitude on imperialism and its wars, and the ability to base one’s program on the experience of the masses themselves.“ The District Assembly unilatefly accepts as its operative principle for its formulation of policy, an uncompromising attitude on imperialism, and the ability to base our program on the experience of the masses themselves.
The District Assembly of Eastern California, which seeks sympathizers, declarants who are prepared to declare their support for altering or abolishing the destructive forms of government, or petitioners who seek to formulate assemblies of ranks and files of worker across the nation, across nations, or across the globe, urges workers from the around the world to oppose the admission of Ukraine into the European Union, oppose the further armament of the Ukrainian forces, to oppose Ukraine war altogether, and its escalation into a global nuclear conflict of wanton death agony and destruction.