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Timed to last from the start of Germany’s decision to launch Operation Barbarossa on June 22nd, 1943 to the war’s end, as symbolized by Gregory Zhukov’s famous ride through the Red Square on a white horse on June 24th, 1945, the Putin regime executed the Wagner coup d’état as an act of deception.

The timing of the Wagner coup d’état also coincides with major developments within the United States. The Biden administration increasingly appears as an embarrassingly dangerous liability on the ability of the ruling elites to conduct the operations of the government. In a recent development within the administration, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, whom the administration directed to backtrack on a previously bellicose posture towards China, returned from a meeting with the county’s head of state only to find his work upended. Shortly after his return, Biden declared the Chinese head of state a “dictator,” in a comment widely propagated throughout the media as a diplomatic slight of hand.

The comment is also seen as undermining Blinken’s diplomacy. It is understood throughout Washington and especially throughout the world that the Biden administration is so fickle that no more time than the time to return to Washington by plane is required to witness the President reverse his Secretary of State’s diplomacy, thereby compromising the image of America as the world’s superpower. It could not be a better time for Putin, who seeks to court Xi Jinping, to launch a highly deceptive operation.

Biden’s incapacity is already an acknowledged fact of his administration within circles of the ruling elite. In a G20 meeting, Biden, who is captured on film, is quoted as saying, “I have already sold state secrets.” The members of the G20 meeting in attendance, who could not help overhearing Biden’s incoherent rambling, are heard in the background laughing at Biden’s shameless remark.

At a recent meeting in North Carolina, for instance, Biden is quoted as saying that his son died in the Iraq war when his true location of death is Maryland. The fact that Biden is permitted to continue resuming office under his current state of mind is a testament to the outrageously degraded character of American democracy.

Divisions within NATO over the procurement of munitions, as an aside to the major developments within the Biden administration, are exacerbating Ukraine’s weaknesses, thereby strangling the counteroffensive’s ability to concentrate massive amounts of firepower on a Schwerpunkt. In the absence of concentrated firepower, Kyiv, which operates at a disadvantage in terms of manpower, cannot muster the strength in combined arms to penetrate Russia’s multilayered complexes of defenses.

Military analysts, who have followed the war closely, allege that Ukrainian armed forces have not even made their way past the first lines of Russia’s complexes. With the counteroffensive floundering amidst calculated delay over Ukraine’s admission into the alliance, NATO continues to struggle with the procurement of munitions, at times advancing sums of money for payment, at others small, insignificant amounts of shells.

NATO’s inability to procure shells for Ukraine comes amid a worsening recession for the alliance’s strongest member, Germany. After the destruction of the Nord Stream, as reported by Seymour Hersh as an act of war committed by the Biden administration, severed Germany’s access to cheap sources of gas, coal, or fuel, many of the country’s primary industries cannot operate for lack of fuel.

Wagner as a Conduit for the Dead End of Reaction and War

Through the coup d’état, Prigozhin has played a considerable the role in the transformation of the Wagner Group, initially formed to serve as a foil to the Ministry of Defense, into a conduit through which Russian masses may channel its opposition to the corruption of Putin’s tightly controlled circle of oligarchs and its disaffection with Russia’s regular army controlled by the Ministry of Defense into the dead end of reaction and war. “Wagner, Wagner,” as one of the headlines in Israel’s Maariv reported, is precisely the chant Putin seeks to hear from the members of his population as a result of the coup d’état.

These chants offset the requirement that Putin make improvements to Russia’s regular army in whose service there is but little expectation for a soldier to be exploited as anything less than mere cannon fodder. Opposition to the regular army, Putin believes, may be canalized into the “Wagner party,” as Maariv reports, that is, into the ranks of the ‘anti-corruption’ leader’s group.

It is important to note that shortly after the Wagner Group’s successful encirclement of Bakhmut as early as February 23rd, 2023, Russia’s Ministry of Defense, under increasing pressure as a result of the flight of more than 260,000 Russian youth to countries bordering Russia, authorized Prigozhin to open no less than 56 recruitment centers throughout Russia. In reports circulating throughout the Arab press, Prigozhin is said to have opened no less than 58 centers throughout more than 46 Russian cities as early as the beginning of March, 2023. These reports were made on March 10th on Sky News twice [1, 2], An Nahar (i.e., “ النهار ” ) [3], Al-Arabiya (i.e., “ العربية ” ) [4], Aawsaat (i.e., “ الشرق الاوسات ” ) [5], and France24 [6]. The author finds no subsequent reports on Wagner’s March 10th announcement regarding recruitment in the Russian press.

In these reports Prigozhin is said to be determined to recruit no less than 30,000 new soldiers. In one of the articles published by Sky News, whose coverage on the Russian war results in highly informative daily posts on YouTube, in articles, or through other types of digital media, the authors mention how the Russians set their timetable for recruitment at no less than two months. Two months from the middle of March is none other than the middle to end of June. It cannot be an exaggeration to suppose that the Putin regime scheduled its decision to host the coup d’état after the end of the Wagner Group’s recruitment campaign.

The fact that the Wagner’s recruitment centers, of which there are 56 in over 42 cities, remain open in Tyumen as well as Novosibirsk.. On June 27th, 2023, the Wall Street Journal noted “State news agency TASS reported Monday that Wagner recruitment centers in the cities of Tyumen and in Novosibirsk, which were closed over the weekend, had resumed work.” The resumption of work for the Wagner Group’s centers necessarily requires one to question the degree to which Putin’s regime is dedicated to the group’s exile, to say the least.

Furthermore, it seems unlikely, that Russia, which facilitated Wagner’s massive March recruitment campaign would have allowed Wagner start, let alone continue recruiting, citizens into its ranks, if the Ministry of Defense suspected Prigozhin could no longer be trusted with the group’s leadership as far back as March, if not now.

In addition, the Russian ruling elite, which became dependent upon Wagner as a result of both the war’s unpopularity as well as its widespread disaffection with unremitting corruption throughout Putin’s tightly ruled clique of oligarchs, could not have simply allowed the group to become rouge after so much effort. It is clear that recruitment campaign, if anything, calls into question the legitimacy of any claim that Putin has not staged this coup d’état well in advance, if not as early as the March recruitment campaign (i.e., when the outcome of the battle of Bakhmut became obvious to anyone who followed the war).

On the contrary, there are many indications that Putin staged this coup d’état. The body language among the Wagner Group’s soldiers, for instance, contradict the high levels of stress associated with an armed insurrection. The soldiers, especially those depicted in photographs from Rostov-on-Don, display no signs of duress, alarm, or fear. They are extremely cool, calm, or collected, especially during their interactions with eyewitnesses on the streets. They certainly do not appear to be in the throws of an ‘armed insurrection’ ready to die defending the Wagner Group against proponents of Putin’s regime. While inferences from body language are weak and inconclusive at best, the totality of circumstances is highly suggestive.

Furthermore, the fact that Russia’s internal state security apparatus allowed Evgeny Prigozhin’s Telegram channels to continue operating throughout the coup d’état indicates that these agencies at least sought to ensure the population could continue to receive Prigozhin’s communiques. That much is certainly undeniable. Furthermore, the fact that the coup d’état occurred with breakneck speed further undermines any claim that Putin’s coup d’état is anything but an act.

The speech Sergey Surovikin gave, for instance, is suspicious. Surovikin is seen pausing for long periods of time. It is clear from the glare in his eyes that he is reading from a teleprompter. He is not speaking out. Since he is reading from a teleprompter, the advanced preparations required for its delivery suggest a much wider plan than merely Surovikin speaking out. If so, the much wider plan is none other than to stage the Wagner coup d’état.

In addition, Lukashenko’s role in the coup d’état is without precedent. There is no history of Lukashenko’s service as a ‘mediator’ for Putin. There is no history of ‘exile’ for opponents of Putin’s regime in Belarus. The fact that Belarus’ became dependent upon Putin’s Russian armed forces after mass protest sought to bring down his government indicates that Lukashenko is in no position but to view threats to Putin’s regime as though to his own. Prigozhin’s ‘exile’ to Belarus would therefore contradict Lukashenko’s position. Recent reports on Lukashenko, who accused Latvia and Poland of training mercenaries, portray his disposition towards the Ukraine as a steadily advancing war-footing, accelerated by the U.S., NATO, and Ukraine.

Sun Tzu

Sun Tzu is one of the most famous military strategists in the history of military doctrine. In his famous book, On War, Sun Tzu elaborated a series of justifications for succinct, brief, terse principles. Published around 500 B.C., military leaders throughout the history of modern warfare have relied upon these principles to plan attacks.

Throughout the entirely of the Ukraine war from the day Sergey Surovikin ordered Russian troops to abandon the western bank of the Dnipro to the present, the principles of Sun Tzu have been at work. In terms of geography, the withdrawal from the western to the eastern indicated an understand of geography. In Sun Tzu’s works he says, “Geography is being high or low, distant or close, rugged or flat, open or narrow, it is life and it is death. Knowledge of the river as a natural barrier accomplished two significant military objectives simultaneously. It foreclosed on the battle at the river. It canalized troops away from anywhere near Crimea to Bakhmut.

In terms of Sun Tzu’s principles, the primary principle, for which the book is the most famous, is the cliché: all of war is deception. Wagner coup d’état exemplifies this principle. If the Wagner coup d’état is a deception, then Putin’s regime certainly succeeded.

In the immediate aftermath of the Wagner coup d’état Western media commentators began to assess quickly Putin regime’s as ‘weak.’ By appearing ‘weak,’ the Russian sought to induce the Ukrainians into further attack. Almost immediately after the Wagner coup d’état, the Russian media reported that Kyiv announced the beginning of a counteroffensive by Ukrainian armed forces in four directions.

“Ukraine’s army initiated a counterattack in a few directions, the Secretary of the Minister of Defense, Anna Miller, announced in a Telegram channel,” RBK reported on June 24th, 2023.

“The eastern group of troops began a counterattack today in a few directions simultaneously. The directions were in Orekhiv-Vasilevsky, Bakhmut, Bogdansky, Yagodny, Klesheevky, Kurdumovki,” Miliar ssaid.

The Russian Newspaper wrote: “Ukrainian armed forces started a counterattack in four directions, announced Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense. Gazeta wrote “Miliar confirms that battles in Kupyansk, Limansk, Marinsk, Avdeevsk, Shakhter, and South.”

Russia’s ability to canalize Ukrainian troops throughout the war is almost unprecedented in military history. It is without a doubt that Putin’s regime sought to exploit the perception of the weakness to encourage Ukrainians to attack. The fact that Ukrainians no only attacked but attacked all over the place, dispersing their ability to strike along multiple points rather than at a single Schwerpunkt is likely much more than the Russians hoped for. Russia’s motivation for canalization is in accordance with its overall military objective. It seeks to destroy the enemy’s manpower. Attack, as is well known, results in a ration three times as great for casualties than defense.

The Real Danger of the Coup d’État

It stands to mention that the Ukraine war is a dead horse. NATO’s proxy force is incapable of a military victory against Russia for lack of an ability to penetrate Russia’s defensive lines, air superiority or munitions. While NATO itself has had plenty of time to resolve these recurring issues, the issues continue to recur to the detriment of Ukrainian soldiers fighting for “Glory to Ukraine.” None of NATO’s attempt at a solution to these problems have accomplished a reversal in fortunes.

The Ukrainians are hopelessly engaged in a Spring but now Summer counteroffensive. The latest update, for instance, in the ‘direction of Bakhmut’ is a measly gain. “Ukraine’s Defense Minister said Ukraine had moved forward 1 1/2 miles in certain areas on the flanks of Bakhmut,” as reported by the Wall Street Journal on June 27th, 2023. [7] The fact that these measly gains are not a basis for the counteroffensive’s termination is a reflection of delusion. Nonetheless, the Ukrainians continue to the beat the dead horse.

Against the backdrop of the hopeless Ukrainian counteroffensive, there is no way anyone could believe Prigozhin’s dispatch to Belarus could not lead to a new development in the Ukraine war. With Prigozhin’s ‘exiled’ to Belarus without recourse to his former life, many have argued he is politically a dead man walking. On the contrary, Prigozhin’s appearance is Belarus is most certainly designed to result in one or more of four possible developments.

Prigozhin may be preparing to build a new Private Military Company in Belarus, which Lukashenko would welcome to ensure his unpopular regime’s continued existence. The evidence for this option, although feasible, stands against its immediate realization, as building a new PMC would take time, a highly limited resource under the pressure of war.

Secondly, he may be seeking to prepare the groundwork for a second ‘coup d’état,’ after which Prigozhin will take nominative control of Belarus’ militarily, as a continuation of the ‘staged’ coups. It is only without imagination that one might deny a repeat of Prigozhin’s June 24th, 2023 ‘staged’ coup d’état, except in Belarus. However, there is less reason to believe so in comparison with these last two options.

Thirdly, Prigozhin may be preparing its military’s integration into Belarus’ military. This is almost for certain. Under the terms of Lukashenko’s negotiated settlement to end the ‘staged’ coup d’état, not only Prigozhin but troops from the Wagner Group are permitted ‘to relocate’ to Belarus. In response to Wagner Group’s troops’ permission ‘to relocate’ to Belarus, Belarus’ Secretary of Defense immediately declared his readiness to attach Wagner Group units to his military. Readiness, however, is a far call from ‘integration.’

Last but not least, Prigozhin may be preparing his forces for attack. Not only is there a political motivation for this reason. Prigozhin’s exile provides Putin with plausible deniability as to any operation Prigozhin’s Wagner Group may execute from Belarus, including but not limited to an attack on (northern) Kyiv, Latvia, Lithuania, or Poland. There is also reason to believe this option the most feasible from the coup’s results.

Within less than six hours, Evgeny Prigozhin’s entire military unit traveled more than 200 kilometers, seizing an entire city, Rostov-on-Don. This is a signal to NATO alliances on the border with Belarus. It has not fallen on deaf ears. In an article published on Tuesday in the Wall Street Journal entitled, “EU and NATO Increase Support to Ukraine,” the authors remark how Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabriel’s Landsbergis said Prigozhin being in “Belarus raised the possibility of a significant Wagner mercenary presence near his country.”

“It took half a day for a military detachment to move 200 kilometers away from Moscow,” the authors quoted Landsbergis as saying. “[Imagine] how fast they can do that crossing Belarus and appearing on Lithuania’s borders,” he continued, “urging Western allies to consider the risks very carefully and offer ‘very specific plans’ to reinforce NATO’s eastern flank.”

Furthermore, Prigozhin’s transfer to Belarus coincides with the scheduled transfer of tactical nuclear weapons on July 7th and 8th. Based on the coup d’état, the Ministry of Defense could condemn Wagner’s the use of tactical nuclear weapons as a legitimate scapegoat but plausibly deny any relation to the Wagner Group as rogue ‘armed insurrectionists’ still under investigation by Russia’s FSB but no longer the subject of an indictment by Russian prosecutors, as stated by Kremlin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov.

The appearance of Wagner’s forces in Belarus, however, heightens the danger that the Ukraine war may spiral out of control. Belarus armed its helicopters with tactical nuclear weapons more than six months ago according to Israeli intelligence reports in the media. Should Wagner’s forces cross the borders of Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, or Ukraine, there is no doubt that the result would be the end of the Ukraine war but the beginning of a new conflict among nuclear armed superpowers, a World War III.

References

[1] — [ Sky News, “فاغنر تفتتح عشارات المراكز للتجنيد مقاتلين جدد ”, March, 10th, 2023]

[2] — [ Sky News, “رئيس فاغنر يتعزم تجنيد ٣٠ الف مقاتل خلال شهرين ”, March, 10th, 2023]

[3] — [ An Nahar (i.e., “ النهار ” ) “ رئيس فاغنر يعلن فتح مراكزا للتجنيد: قلق من نقص الذخيرة ”, March, 10th, 2023]

[4] — [ Al-Arabiya (i.e., “ العربية ” ), ”,« فاغنر» تفتح مراكز للتجنيد ب٤٢ مدينة روسية للقتال في اوكرانيا “ March, 10th, 2023]

[5] — [ Aawsaat (i.e., “ الشرق الاوسات ” ), ”« فاغنر» تفتتح مراكز تجنيد في مدن روسية للقتال باوكرانيا“ March, 10th, 2023]

[6] — [ France24, “ مجموعة فاغنر تفتح مراكز جديدة للتجنيد في ٤٢ مدينة روسية للقتال في اوكرانيا ”, March, 10th, 2023]

[7] — [Wall Street Journal, “Kyiv Says It Is Gaining Territory,” June 27th, 2023]