The Western media continues to criticize the slogging, slow, ‘grinding’ advances of the Russian armed forces as “inch by inch.” Almost none of the mainstream reporting on these small advances attributes the speed to the actual state of mud on the ground in Ukraine, especially around Bakhmut.
It is not hard to imagine, however, how the historical role of Ukraine’s mud continues to play a role now, as it has played in war after war. During the Nazi’s Operation Barbarossa, for instance, the mud–in nearly the same areas as where unprecedentedly fierce fighting in and around Bakhmut is erupting–is famous for suction. German soldiers often abandoned motorized vehicle for wooden peasant carts called panjes whose wheels wouldn’t sink into the mud.
The mud is so much a feature of Ukrainian life that both Russians as well as Ukrainians have a special name for it. It is called rasputitsa.
Against the backdrop of relentless criticizism of Russia’s minute advances in the rasputitsa, which are described as an example of that military’s inability to fight, the Western media continues to roll the drum beat for a Ukrainian counteroffensive.
The date, for instance, is already set. Based on one of the reports from the Classified NATO Documents on Ukrainian Armed Forces Leaked to the Public, April 30th, 2023 appears to be the day when Ukrainian armed forces plan to launch their long planned Spring counteroffensive.
While the Zelensky regime makes no mention of the actual forces with which he plans to launch the Spring counteroffensive, the only remaining Ukrainian force at his disposal is the so-called “last assemblage.” It is widely acknowledged that Russian armed forces annihilated the first assemblage during its invasion on February 24th, 2022. Furthermore, the vast majority of the second assemblage perished during the siege of Azovstal in Mariupol; most notably, the Azov Battalion, a fascistic unit of Ukrainian armed forces, arose without so much as a single member of its armed forces. The third assemblage, which Ukrainian armed forces have derived from press gangs detaining able bodied men from the street, has been annihilated during the months long battle in Bakhmut. Ukrainian armed forces are down to their “last assemblage” or “fourth army” now.
With its “fourth army,” Ukrainian armed forces have no chance of success in a Spring counteroffensive. The prediction that Ukrainian armed forces have no chance of success in a Spring counteroffensive is based upon the following reasons: the fact that 1) Classified NATO Documents on Ukrainian Armed Forces Leaked to the Public support the hypothesis of a fourth Ukrainian army, and that 2) Ukrainian armed forces do not have a history of penetrating Russia’s lines of defense.
Classified NATO Documents on Ukrainian Armed Forces Leaked to the Public support the hypothesis that Ukraine’s last assemblage is its fourth Ukrainian army. The hypothesis serves to undermine the official Washington narrative about the status of Ukrainian armed forces. Based on a careful reading of the Pentagon leak, the primary conclusion to emerge is that Ukraine’s armed forces have suffered staggering, irreversible, life-threatening losses in its personnel, formations, or its military in general.
Secondarily, the reports have already concluded to reduce the expected outcome of any Ukrainian counteroffensive to a point of condemnation. Ukrainian armed forces are already scheduled to achieve less than 20% of their objectives, as per a recently released intelligence communique from among those the wrongfully imprisoned Jack Texeira leaked from a Secret Compartmented Intelligence Facility (henceforth SKIF). A counteroffensive condemned to achieve less than 20% of its objectives is reason to halt than than launch.
A famous Roman general once stated that more wars are won with the dolabra than the gladius. The dolabra is the Roman entrenching tool. The gladius is the Roman thrusting sword. So it is with Ukraine. There is absolutely no reason to believe that Ukrainian armed forces are capable of penetrating Russian defenses, especially its trenches, and Russia has gone out of its way to shore up its defenses in anticipation of Ukraine’s counteroffensive.
In a recently published analysis of Russian defenses in the Donbas, El País notes how the Russians have built fortifications to thwart a Ukrainian counteroffensive. In an article entitled, “Rusia levanta 800 kilómetros de fortificaciones para detener una contraofensiva ucrania,” the authors explain how over more than 800 kilometers Russians have staggered a complex of different lines of defense.
The staggered complex consists first of all of a “zanja antivehículos” (i.e., an anti-tank trench) designed to stall, trap, or totally damage armored military vehicles. The second layer consists of “trincheras y alambradas” (i.e., trenches with barbed wire fencing). The third layer consists of a “campo mind” (i.e., mine field). The fourth layer consists of “dientes de dragón” (i.e., dragon’s teeth). The firth layer consists of “trincheras y alambradas” (i.e., trenches with barbed wire fencing). The sixth layer consists of “parapetos hormigonados para tiradores, ametralladoras y tanques” (i.e., concrete parapets for infantry, machine guns and tanks). The seventh and last layer consists of “fortines” (i.e., forts).
The impenetrability of Russia’s staggered complex of different lines of defense may be measured against the trenches of Bakhmut. The initial phase of trench warfare there witnessed Russian infantry’s successful implementation of infiltration tactics on trenches. Newsweek, for instance, echoed research conducted by Institute for the Study of War (henceforth ISW). In an article published on February 23rd, 2023, “Russian Soldiers’ Successful Bakhmut Tactics Emerge—ISW,” Newsweek quotes a Ukrainian soldier saying in an interview that “Russian troops are carrying out ‘fairly successful infiltration techniques’ in Bakhmut.” The ISW explained that these techniques, “which are likely helping reinvigorate the stalled Russian advances in and around Bakhmut,” are not likely scalable to support larger offensive operations. Since these techniques are not likely to scale among Russians for a large offensive operation, these techniques are not likely to scale in a large offensive operation among Ukrainians, who have not even displayed the features commensurate with the designation for their troops.
Despite the fact that the ISW propagates information in favor of Ukrainian forces, the institute, nonetheless, surfaces valuable insights such as the one above. An example of its propaganda is its forecast that Bakhmut could not become the subject of an “imminent fall,” a statement made on or around February 23rd, 2023 when Bakhmut’s encirclement had already severed Ukrainians from control of the M030 highway. Encirclement entails an imminent fall in all but exceptional cases, especially after lines of communication like M030 highway are severed. With the H0504 now severed, Bakhmut’s encirclement almost certainly entails its “imminent fall.”
Air superiority is one way to overcome these defenses. Ukraine, however, is hard pressed to assert air superiority, especially when the Classified NATO Documents on Ukrainian Armed Forces Leaked to the Public claims Ukraine’s air defense systems are scheduled to run out of munitions on May 23rd, 2023. As El Pais writes in the article mentioned above, “Y este es el principal problema de Ucrania, avisa Helin: que Kiev no cuenta con superioridad aérea para romper las líneas de suministro rusas, su artillería y sus tanques.” The English translation is: “And this is Ukraine’s principle problem, says Helin: that Kiev does not have the air superiority to break Russian supply lines, its artillery or tanks.”
In the various reports recently published by the New York Times, Washington Post or Wall Street Journal, there does not appear to be any information with which one could come to the conclusion that the Ukrainians have developed solutions for any one of the challenges its counteroffensive faces, especially those enumerated above.
On April 1st, 2023, New York Times, for instance, published a story entitled, “Call for Recruits After Winter of Intense Fighting and Heavy Casualties,” where the NYT covered the call for recruitment ahead of Ukraine’s spring counteroffensive. The authors do not touch upon any of the alleged, suspected, or real challenges that the Ukrainian army faces but the authors call Ukraine’s army “battered.” The article operates at length to portray the Russian military as ‘weakened,’ ‘suffering staggering casualties,’ or incapable of ‘resisting an Ukrainian attack,” a claim for which the authors simply have no recourse in reason, fact, or military theory, or, at least, none mentioned in the article.
The article is a pathetic reflection of the NYT‘s role as nothing more than a mouthpiece for Washington’s narrative of an unprovoked war. In that narrative the inept Russia is incapable of defending itself against Ukrainian armed forces but the reality is that Russian armed forces have controlled the Ukrainian military’s advances since its retreat from to the eastern bank of the Dnipro river.
Another noteworthy article from the NYT is from an article published on April 4th, 2023, “Ukraine Plans Attack with Fresh Weapons But Weary Soldiers,” where the authors lament the loss of the fascistic, Nazi, Bandera followers from “the decimated Azov battalion, all of whose activity duty soldiers were killed, wounded or captured in the siege of Mariupol,” especially, as in the “holdout at the Azovstal steel [plant] last spring.”
Amid reports that Ukraine is rebuilding the Azov battalion for the counteroffensive, the authors prepare no inquiry of points regarding nascent challenges to the counteroffensive against “the Russian-occupied city of Melitopol,” which is supposed to split “Russian held territory into two zones, [severing] supply lines.” Of the Ukrainian fighting performance, the author makes no mention of trench warfare or any other challenge.
Both the April 1st and the April 4th articles, however, celebrate the recruitment of 35,000 new Ukrainian recruits, the vast majority of which are being prepared for an assault, the predicted outcome of which is based on challenges the authors fail to analyze.
Neither the Washington Post nor the Wall Street Journal have posted articles in response to the challenges that Ukrainian armed forces must face against the Russian military ahead of its Spring offensive.
Since Ukraine is not scheduled to succeed in its Spring counteroffensive, there is every reason to be shocked by what Zelensky himself said on the First Anniversary of the Ukraine War about the collapse of Ukrainian armed forces.
In an article published on the LeftOpposition entitled, “The Death Agony of Ukraine : The First Anniversary of the Ukraine War,” Ariel Plotnik wrote: “During a press conference memorializing the first anniversary of the Ukraine war, President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, announced, on February 24th, 2023 that in the event Russia’s victory in Ukraine, the United States would be required to send its soldiers into the war in Ukraine. Zelensky stated: “I want to thank Americans. I am glad that I have bipartisan support but the messages we hear are frightening. If Ukraine loses, Russia is bound to wage war with NATO countries, and the United States will have no choice but to send its own soldiers, sons and daughters into war, as we [Ukrainians] are doing right now. This is a great tragedy.” In other words, the collapse of Ukrainian armed forces portends an expansion of the war beyond its current borders.
Echoing these exact same sentiments, the Polish ambassador to France repeated Zelensky’s sentiments, except replacing the United States with Poland. He stated: “Therefore, either Ukraine will defend its independence today, or we will have to enter this conflict. Because our main values, which were the basis of our civilization and our culture will be threatened. Therefore, we will have no choice but to enter the conflict.”
Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, recently convened a meeting with G7 countries, where he sought to double down on the Polish ambassador’s remarks in regards to Ukraine’s counteroffensive. “The G7 has led the world in galvanizing and sustaining support for Ukraine,” said Blinken.
Despite the condemnation of Ukrainian prospects for success in the Classified NATO Documents on Ukrainian Armed Forces Leaked to the Public, Blinken, nonetheless, reiterated support for Ukraine’s counteroffensive.
“Now, as Ukraine prepares to launch a counteroffensive to take back its land, to liberate its people in occupied territories, to stop the missiles, bombs, and drones which continue to rain down daily on its civilians, we stand with Ukraine,” said Blinken in an meeting on April 18th, 2023.
It does not matter, however, which NATO Member State enters the war first, the expansion of the war into direct conflict with NATO Member States entails the outbreak of World War III. The only way out of the conflict is for both Russian and Ukrainian Slavs to forgo this fratricide for unification against the underlying cause of the crisis, the breakdown of the nation-state in a capitalistic global economy by building rank-and-file fighting committees through which soldiers may declare jurisdiction over the land in a way similar, if not identical, to the way Black Sea soldiers seized Sevastopol in 1905 and 1917.