The battle for Kherson continues. After the withdrawal, Alarabiya (i.e., العربية ) reported Volodymyr Zelensky saying: “Russia had destroyed all critical infrastructure in the parts of Kherson that Ukrainian armed forces recovered the week prior.” [1]
No less than a few week have passed since Russia’s “retreat” from the Western bank of the Dnipro than the citizens are being evacuated as Russian mortar, artillery, missile, or air attacks pound the other bank relentlessly.
On November 28th, 2022, The Daily Egyptian reported “the Governor of Ukraine’s Kherson Province Yaroslav Yanushevfits said Russian forces attacked the Kherson region 54 times for hours in the past 24 hour period, killing one person and injuring two others.” [2]
As the Editorial Board of the District Assembly predicted, the retreat to the Eastern bank of the Dniper did not constitute a major victory for Ukrainian forces, as winter approached. The fact that the Russians have terminated the vast majority of ground offenses on the Eastern bank of the Dniper provides the Russians not only time to continue to reinforce their positions on that bank but time to train the recently mobilized troops.
In addition, the Russians appear withdrawn to the Eastern bank of the Dniper not merely for the sake of securing their control over the Eastern bank by way of the Dniper as a shield from ground offenses but for the sake of channelling.
As is clear from the intensity of fighting in Bakhmut, the Russians have sought to channel ground offensives away from the geopolitically strategic Crimean peninsula, for which control of the Eastern bank of the Dniper is key, to a meat grinder where expendable Russian mercenaries from the Wagner Private Military Company are currently taking Ukrainian forces to task on their re-channeled ground offenses.
In short, Russia appears to be directing Ukrainians to fight where Russians would like them to fight rather than the other way around. If true, the current phrase of the war would represent a significant turnaround from the period immediately following the rout in Kharkiv. From Caesar’s siege of Elysian to Napoleon’s Pratzen Heights, the history of military doctrines favors the army that controls its enemy, dictating to it when, where, or how to fight.
The Ukrainian Army General Staff announced that the army had responded to attempts by Russian forces to advance on 5 settlements in the east of the country, targeting 11 Russian centers for military equipment and personnel. [3] But it does not appear as though UAGS succeeded in pushing the Russians back.
Stuck in trenches full of water, mud, bacteria or viruses, Ukrainian troops must now reconcile their forward operability with the ever increasingly dangerous environment. Described alternatively as “General Winter” or “General Cold,” after Napoleon’s failed winter campaign in 1812, the environment continues to cripple Ukrainian’s ability to advance on villages in the Bakhmut region.
Russian forces, primarily made up of men from the Wagner Private Military Company, have recently beat Ukrainians back, especially in Artemovsk. In Artemovsk, Russians announced that they captured the village, uploading a video of the unoccupied to YouTube, claiming to have killed no less than 300 soldiers, 200 of which were Ukrainian, 100 of which are claimed to have been mercenaries most likely from Poland.
Reporting on casualties, on November 28th, 2022, the New York Times stated how “the stream of casualties in Bakhmut seemed unending,” as medical personnel scrambled in ambulances, armored personnel carriers, or military vehicles carry the nearly dead soldiers to the city’s only military hospital. By the end of the day the reporters counted 50 wounded with no less than a total of 240 soldiers admitted.
Described as a “destructive vortex,” where Ukrainian armed forces have “thrown masses of troops” presumably to their death, Bakhmut, now one of the deadliest and most destructive battles thus far in the Ukraine war, is also a “resource-intensive black hole for Kiyv.”
Ukraine’s rapid expenditure of munitions is beginning to evoke in some security circles analogies with Afghanistan. In one report the author claims that Ukraine’s artillery expends in a day more than what the United States Armed Forces expended in a single month in Afghanistan. The analogy is all the more startling as the United States Armed Forces withdrew in defeat after more than 20 years of a forever war, which is highly suggestive for Ukraine.
“A day in Ukraine is a month or more in Afghanistan,” said Camille Grand, a defense expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations. “By comparison, the United States produces only 15,000 rounds each month.”
The increasingly rapid expenditure of munitions appears to be a weakness Russia seeks to target for exploitation in the re-channeled Bakhmut offensive. It is obvious that the more Russia encourages Ukraine to expend its munitions, the more frequently Ukraine must request replacements from neighboring countries, NATO or the United States.
The strain on donating countries like the NATO members or the United States of American continues in the form of one of many pressures. Among the present Russia has sought to leverage Winter, the supply of gas, coal, and oil, and Ukraine’s completely ravished economy to its advantage both militarily and politically.
It is perhaps for this reason that Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley, who appeared to a deliver an astoundingly sober evaluation of Ukraine’s chances for success in the coming months, cautioned against a continuation of the war immediately after Russia’s withdrawal on November 16th, 2022.
Stating the Russian military was “really hurting bad” after nearly nine months of war in which the Kremlin has failed to achieve any of its goals.”
Milley continued, saying, “The Ukrainians have racked up “success after success after success,” where Milley meant primarily Kherson.
Continuing Milley said “both Russia and Ukraine will have to realize that military victory is impossible to achieve .” [4]
It certainly begs the question that one of the highest ranking members of the Ukrainian military campaign has condemned its success at such a time and what is even more curious is that such an astoundingly sober statement comes so late in the game. Why does the seizure of Kherson, which has already been more or less abandoned, indicate a position of strength from which to negotiate the war’s termination? Suffice it to say that the Biden administration, whose objective for victory in the Ukraine campaign is for regime change, publicly distanced itself from Milley.
Likely aware of the Biden’s administration’s ambitions and after having carefully calculated their pros and cons, Milley’s concerns for a negotiated peace may stem from the fact that any failure by Ukraine to secure its flank in the battle for Bakhmut exposes the Ukrainian troops in encirclement, should Russian forces cross the Dniper headed North after the winter. It is unclear, however, what the divisions within Washington and the Pentagon portend but as the war continues the lack of a coherent military strategy within the UAGS is being echoed in the mouths of officials like Milley.
What is clear that as the battle for Kherson continues from the Eastern shore of the Dniper, the battle is far from over, as many western experts have rushed to exclaim, especially the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley.
[1] – [ “الجيش الأوكراني، الأسبوع الماضي. ; “أكد الرئيس الأوكراني فولوديمير زيلينسكي، الاثنين، أن روسيا دمرت “كل البنى التحتية الحيوية” في أجزاء من منطقة خيرسون استعادها ” AlArabiya.com, 11/15/22]
[2] – [ “أوكرانيا تقصف وسط دونيتسك وروسيا تستهدف خيرسون” ;”“وقال حاكم مقاطعة خيرسون الأوكرانى، ياروسلاف يانوشيفيتش، أمس، إن القوات الروسية قصفت منطقة خيرسون 54 مرة خلال الساعات الـ24 الماضية، ما أسفر عن مقتل شخص وإصابة اثنين.” https://www.almasryalyoum.com, 11/28/22]
[3] – [ “أوكرانيا تقصف وسط دونيتسك وروسيا تستهدف خيرسو”” ; “وأعلنت هيئة أركان الجيش الأوكرانى أن الجيش تصدى لمحاولات تقدم القوات الروسية قرب 5 مستوطنات فى شرق البلاد. وأضافت أن الجيش استهدف 11 مركزًا روسيًّا للمُعَدات والأفراد العسكريين.” https://www.almasryalyoum.com, 11/28/22]
[4] – [“Top US general argues Ukraine may be in a position of strength to negotiate Russian withdrawal” ; CNN, November 16th, 2022]