The Russians have begun to make substantial advances along all of the five major axes of advance, causing the layers of decade old Ukrainian strongholds to unravel like Tymoshenko’s braid.
Described in the New York Times as a “crowning glory,” Tymoshenko’s briad represented more than merely hair. Spiraling, well kept, ostentatious, the famous symbol of Ukrainian aspirations for none other than the anti-Russian, European aligned, oligarchic ruling elite, Tymoshenko’s braid, is unraveling now just like the plans the pro-NATO entourage envisioned for the Donbas.
Even before the Maidan coup d’état, Tymoshenko’s “plait first attracted wide notice in the Orange Revolution of 2004,” a Soros inspired ‘revolution,’ whose 20th anniversary comes on Nov 22nd, 2024. Those were the days when Ukraine still held elections for President. Those days are long gone now.
The Times equates the braid, ‘wrapped up in Tymoshenko’s nationalism,’ a ‘firebrand,’ with strongholds in Ukraine. These strongholds, whose defense served as hairpins in the delicately braided defenses at the crown of the Donbas, are being successively upbraided, lock after lock. Vuhledar, alongside Chasiv Yar, Synkivka, or Pokrovsk, as well as Avdiivka, were the central lynchpins for Ukraine’s defense of the Donbas. In quick pursuit after Avdiivka, these lynchpins are beginning to fall.
Vuhledar
In the Vuhledar direction, the tables are turning. The Russians suffered tremendous defeats in 2023 both in as well as around the embattled city. The Times covered the arc of Russia’s failed offensive in that year with stunning accuracy. On February 4th, 2023, the Times published an article entitled: “Russia Pushes to Take Ukrainian Town Near a Vital Supply Line.” The article outlined the beginning of the biggest battle of the year.[2] In subsequent coverage, the Times exclaiming how “[perhaps] no weapon symbolizes the ferocious violence of war more than the main battle tank,” detailed Russia’s defeat. “A three-week battle on a plain near the coal-mining town of Vuhledar in southern Ukraine produced what Ukrainian officials say was the biggest tank battle of the war so far” with “a a stinging setback for the Russians.” Utilizing “[ambushes], Ukraine’s signature tactic against Russian armored columns since the early days of the war” relied on “[anti-tank] teams hiding in tree lines along the fields,” “armed with American infrared-guided Javelins,” or “Ukrainian laser-guided Stugna-P missiles.” These teams routed the Russians in Vuhledar.
In an article published right before the description of Russia’s defeat, the Times explained how “[a] disastrous Russian assault on Vuhledar, viewed as an opening move in an expected spring offensive, has renewed doubts about Moscow’s ability to sustain a large-scale ground assault.”[3] The “battle around the Ukrainian city of Vuhledar, which sits at the intersection of the eastern front in the Donetsk region and the southern front in the Zaporizhzhia region, is viewed as one of Moscow’s opening moves of a nascent spring offensive.”[4] The Ukrainains continued to repel the Russians well into the New Year.[5]
At the beginning of 2024, the reporting began to change, noting an ammunition shortage.[6] After the fall of Avdiivka, the Russians made few, if any, gains in Vuhledar during 2024 but Russians have taken advantage of a window of opportunity in the aftermath of the unsuccessful Kursk offensive. On Tuesday, the Ukrainian OSINT blogger, whose channels is one of the most popular, DeepStateUA, wrote: “Останні дні противник активізувався на двох ділянках — західніше Павлівки та біля Водяного. Ціль даної акції зрозуміла — обійти Вугледар і взяти його в кільце, бо кількість невдалих спроб ворога штурмувати у фронт вимірюється вже сотнями разів.” [7] Russian news reports support the claim that Vuhledar is a target for encirclement.[8] According to a Ukrainian military cartographer, “Russian forces [have] advanced to the mine complex northeast of Vuhledar.”[9] In addition to Russian advances, Russian news sources are reporting that Ukraine withdrew its forces from the city.[10] These factors represent a significant turnaround from Russia’s defeat in 2023.
Synkivka
While reportedly a fallen city much earlier this year, Synkivka is now confirmed under Russian control. Just like Vuhledar, the Russians suffered defeat in Synkivka earlier this year. Noting a Russian advantage in artillery, an article from the Wall Street Journal detailed how “four Russian tanks” together with “infantry fighting vehicles” met a solid demise in an ambush on minefields carefully laid throughout the inroads to Synkivka.[11] The Journal noted: “Russia is struggling to overcome many of the same obstacles that prevented Ukrainian forces from gaining significant ground. Dense minefields funnel advancing troops into enemy crosshairs. The proliferation of surveillance drones has made attempts to breach enemy lines near impossible.” Despite the reduction of Russia’s artillery advantage or the reconnaissance strike complex, the Russians have advanced in Synkivka recently.
DeepStateUA, for instance, remarked recently how “Синьківка станом на зараз залишається під контролем Сил Оборони України. Кацапам дано терміновий наказ — показати успіхи на всіх ділянках фронту. Відповідно у село пробилася група противника, яку банально провтикали. Вони вивісили прапор і зняли відео даного процесу.”[12] The post to which the blogger is referring contains a photograph of a Russian soldier with the Russian flag flying at the outermost endpoints of the small village, signaling that the village is no longer under Ukrainian control, despite Ukrainian attempts to ambush the Russians.
Pokrovsk
Footage of the Kara-Dag brigade, a crack brigade from Ukraine’s National Guard, destroying Russian columns of assault units in Mykhailivka in the Pokrovsk direction have begun to circulate. As one Ukrainian milblogger wrote of the incident: “Воїни 15-ї бригади оперативного призначення НГУ “Кара-Даг” знищують російську піхоту та бронетехніку при спробі висадити десант на Покровському напрямку, Донеччина.” “Desperate To Save Pokrovsk,” the Kara-Dag brigade is one of Ukraine’s few offensive brigades.[13] The Kara-Dag brigade, however, is unlikely to stop, repel, or push back the Russians in their advances.
Other footage of the 59th Motorized Brigade engaging in a fierce battle with Russian forces attempting to advance in the Pokrovsk direction depicts Ukrainian troops facing an assault of 16 heavily armored vehicles with several waves of infantry attacks. Despite the odds, the brigade managed to destroy 12 Russian armored vehicles, causing the remaining ones to retreat. According to Ukrainian milbloggers, Russian troops lost 93 infantry soldiers. The 59th Motorized Brigade’s performance, however, has come under fire. Its positions near Pervomaiske as well as Nevelske in the Pokrovsk direction are about to be compromised, despite having held so well in the past.
Aside from footage, eyewitness accounts tells an altogether different story. The Telegraph recently published an article, indicating the speed of Russia’s advance, as according to Ukrainian soldiers in the trenches there. “‘I’ve never seen such speed [in a Russian advance],’ the commander of a Ukrainian aerial reconnaissance unit fighting in the area told The Telegraph this week. ‘It is very rapid. And our problem is the same: we don’t have infantry, we don’t have enough artillery or shells. We don’t have enough drones’… ‘The situation is very complicated, and not in our favour. The most critical thing for us now is the large number of soldiers of the Russian Federation. They outnumber us I reckon by at least five to one.’”[14] Even the world kickboxing champion, Roman Golovatyuk, who fought in the ranks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, fell victim to Russia’s advances near Pokrovsk.
While these most recent pieces of footage exemplify the last-ditch Ukrainian effort to save Pokrovsk, a key logistical hub in southeastern Donetsk, Ukrainian military bloggers have begun to highlight deficiencies, most likely the cause for Russia’s rapid advances, in Ukraine’s command. One Ukrainian blogger made a long list of these deficiencies. He started out by saying, “Оборона на Покровському напрямку настільки дезорганізована, що у свої просування не вірять самі росіяни.” In his list, he lists the following:
– погана взаємодія між бригадами та меншими суміжними підрозділами.
– дефіцит людей і непропорційний розподіл їх на оборонних позиціях.
– наш РЕБ давить наші дрони краще, аніж РЕБ ворожий.
– неорганізованість ротацій бригад. Одна може вийти ще до того, як зайшла інша. Цим користується ворог і бʼє саме туди.
– командування ОТУ фактично не управляє військами, не налагодило взаємодію та не володіє інформацією про реальні наші позиції. Часто бувають випадки відправки підрозділів на позиції, що знаходяться вже у тилу росіян, бо ОТУ думає, що вони за нами.
– брехня, брехня і ще раз брехня.
These deficiencies represent a near total collapse of Ukraine’s command in the Pokrovsk direction, indicating that Ukraine’s inability to defend the strongholds in or around Pokrovsk is less related to being outgunned or outmanned than to serious problems with Command and Control (C2). In contrast with the other directions or villages, the inability to exert Command and Control (C2) for the defense of the strongholds in or around Pokrovsk is exacerbating the Ukraine’s increasing lack of Ukrainian control over the Donbas.
Unravelling of the Donbas
The loss of these small villages, strongholds, or fortifications in eastern Ukraine represents the unravelling of the Donbas. With the fall of Vuhledar, alongside Chasiv Yar, Synkivka, or Pokrovsk, as well as Avdiivka, the central lynchpins for Ukraine’s defense of the Donbas are beginning to fall, letting loose the plans both the famous 2004 Orange Revolution led by Tymoshenko or the 2014 infamous coup d’état in Maidan sought to achieve for the region. Nearly two decades later, Ukraine’s Donbas is beginning to unravel like the ‘crowned jewel,’ Tymoshenko’s braid.
References
[1] – [“‘The braid’ is crowning glory for the Ukranian politician Yulia Tymoshenko,” New York Times, October 7th, 2007]
[2] – [“In an Epic Battle of Tanks, Russia Was Routed, Repeating Earlier Mistakes,” New York Times, March 1st, 2023]
[3] – [“Moscow’s Military Capabilities Are in Question After Failed Battle for Ukrainian City,” New York Times, February 15th, 2023]
[4] – [“Russia’s losses around Vuhledar renew questions about its ability to sustain a fresh offensive,” New York Times, February 15th, 2023]
[5] – [“Ukrainian Troops Repel Russian Attacks, and Hope Western Arms Turn the Tide,” New York Times, April 27th, 2023]
[6] – [“‘They Come in Waves’: Ukraine Goes on Defense Against a Relentless Foe,” New York Times, February 4th, 2024]
- The epicenter of the fighting remains around Avdiivka in the eastern Donetsk region, where the Russians have staged relentless assaults, no matter the obstacles. They spent weeks fighting for control of an industrial slag heap on the outskirts of the city, sending waves of troops up only to be cut down in horrifying fusillades. They creep through tunnels under the city streets and direct unmanned vehicles packed with explosives at Ukrainian positions.
[7] – [DeepStateUA :20215]
[8] – [“Mash: ВС РФ начали штурм Угледара,” https://ura.news/, 01 сентября 2024]
[9] – [“UAControlMap:status/1830379344687988927]
[10] – [“Военкор Котенок заявил об отступлении ВСУ из ключевых пунктов на фронте,” https://ura.news/, 31 августа 2024]
[11] – [“This Ambush Shows How Ukraine Is Holding the Line,” Wall Street Journal, January 29th, 2024]
[12] – [DeepStateUA:20226]
[13] – [“Desperate To Save Pokrovsk, The Ukrainian National Guard Has Deployed One Of Its Few Offensive Brigades,” Forbes, August 30th, 2024]
[14] – [“Master stroke or folly? Ukraine could pay high price for its Kursk incursion,” Telegraph, August 31st, 2024]