The following is a work in progress.
Date | Citation | Prediction | Disproved | Date of Disapproval |
November 12th, 2022 | General Hodges Makes Forecast for Liberation of Mariupol, Melitopol, Crimea,” Ukrinform, 11/12/24 | Hodge’s predicted Ukraine would reclaim Mariupol, Melitopol, and Crimea. | Russia laid siege to Mariupol, Melitopol, and Crimea and held these territories. | Russia’s siege of Mariupol terminated on 20 May, 2022. Russia’s siege of Melitopol ended on March 1, 2022; Russia annexed Melitopol on September 30th, 2022. Russia’s seizure of Crimea on February 27th, 2014; it annexed the territory on March 18, 2014. |
August 8th, 2023 | “U.S. Made Cluster Munitions Fuel Counteroffensive,” WSJ, August 8th, 2023 | Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, a former commander of the U.S. Army in Europe, said the U.S. sent cluster munitions instead of more howitzer ammunition, which is running low in the West. He expected cluster bombs would be more effective. “Part of the way you deal with mass formations is with this scatterable munition.” | Lt. Ben Hodge’s prediction that cluster munitions would facilitate breakthroughs failed to materialize. | Ukraine’s 2023 ‘Spring’ counteroffensive in the Robotyne direction failed to achieve a breakthrough; Ukraine never managed to breach the first line of defense in the Surovikin lines. The cluster munitions were ineffective. |
February 11th, 2024 | “Syrsky will be a very unpleasant surprise for the Russian army,” https://news.online.ua/, February 11th, 2024 | General Ben Hodges predicts that the new head of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrsky is preparing very unpleasant surprises for the criminal army of the Russian Federation on the battlefield. | Russia successfully encircled more than 2,000 Ukrainian soldiers in the Kursk direction. Ukraine’s unrealized primary military objectives (i.e., Kursk NPP, shaping operation on Donbas, etc) in Kursk endangered the loss of Donbas territory. | October 24th, 2024 Russia encircled Ukrainian soldiers. “Путин заявил о взятых в кольце украинских военных в Курской области,” РБК, 25 Октября, 2024. |
October 28th, 2024 | Russian elites know they’re losing: M. Timoshenko: “Even in a nightmare we could not have predicted what the Special Military Operation would lead to.” Col. General V Baranet: “Belousov is talentless. Our aviation has collapsed and Ukrainian drones control the skies.” | General Hodges predicted that Russia is losing. | In the month following Russia’s largest reclamation of lost Donbas territory in September, Russia fell several Donbas villages. According to territorial reclamation, Russia is acquiring more than Ukraine, indicating that Russia is winning. | In September, Russia expanded its control in Ukraine by approximately 467.7 km², the largest monthly gain for Russia since March 2022, acc’ @War_Mapper. These statistics are a further repudiation of Syrsky’s claim that Russia advanced ‘no single kilometer’ after Kursk. |