Although China’s Defense Industrial Base (henceforth DIB) produces more ships than the United States, China’s inability to supply its aircraft carriers with existing or future numbers of fighter jets presents a challenge for the Chinese strategy. The production of aircraft carriers, which China is producing at a faster rate than the United States, requires a concomitant rate of production for aircraft that its DIB does not appear to supply.

Chinas has noted that the United States failed to assert its dominance over the Red Sea with the use of advanced fighter jets launched from aircraft carriers. The logistics of distant combat with strike carrier groups requires a commitment that is not calculated to exceed in Taiwan the success the United States has not experienced with Yemen. The Houthi’s announcement, true or false, that an American aircraft carrier may have become the victim of a long range strike is a challenge for which the Chinese strategy does not appear to be prepared to counter, overcome or subdue with its DIB.

Coupled together with U.S.-led NATO’s strategy on the Black Sea, parts of which the Houthis have incorporated into their defense of the Red Sea, the Chinese do not have the capacity in anti aircraft or anti aquatic weaponry to present a stronger defense of its navy than Russia’s. Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, which has witnessed the replacement of its commander, Sokolov, has lost a record number of vessels, exceeding more than 27 confirmed losses in short succession.

Similarly, Ukraine’s own struggle to make a cross-water landing on Krinki, Nestryha, and Tendra Spit west of the Kinburn Peninsula have demonstrated to the Chinese the shockingly intense demand on logistics, especially since China’s more conventional navy resembles Russia’s more than Ukraine’s. China’s top heavy navy likely could not meet equal or greater success in an emulation of Ukraine’s cross-water landings.

These factors combine to creating a daunting situation for China. China’s conventional navy has not created a method to counter the naval kamikaze drone threat any more than Russia’s own conventional navy has. It’s top heavy navy cannot operate with the blithe, agility, or stealth that Ukraine’s much less conventional, bottom light navy can. In light of these factors, U.S.-led NATO’s strategy on the Black Sea deters China from an invasion of Taiwan for the next three to five years.