The most recent developments, especially Russia’s most recent advances in the most important sector of its five axes of advance from last winter onward, demonstrate Russia’s ‘presentation of a superiority of force’ over the Donbas.

• Russia’s assessed control over the Ground Lines of Communication (GLOC) in the Pokrovsk direction stems primarily from its force’s proximity to both the village of Vozdvizhenka, as well as to the village of Pokrovsk. Russia is less than ten kilometers from both of these villages.
• The village of Vozdvizhenka, which is the last village before the so-called Versorgungsweg, is the only settlement separating the Russians from control over the GLOCs to or from both southern as well as northern Donetsk.
• The village of Pokrovsk, which is the last village before the Dnipro, is the only settlement separating the Russians from control over Ukraine’s last line of defense in the Avdiivka direction.
• Russia’s most recent advance through the village of Niu York, which is located in the Toretsk (i.e., Dzerzhinsk) direction, provides Russia with assessed control over a right flank.
• Russia most recent advances in the area of Netailove, primarily Novoselivka Persha, provides Russia with assessed control over a left flank.
• With Russia’s flanks secured against counterattacks in either direction, Russia’s assessed control over the GLOCs in the Pokrovsk direction empower the Russians to assert control over supply, logistics, or transport for the entire internal aspect of the Donbas.

Russia’s advance after the fall of Avdiivka is a complex process, involving many factors, the majority of which Russia’s Army Group Center exploited to continue deep into Ukraine’s territory.

With the evacuation of Pokrovsk, home to no less than 60,000 residents, the battle for Pokrovsk begins. The 47th Mechanized Brigade, whose Ukrainian soldiers lack no amount of bravery, courage, or determination, withdrew recently in defeat from the Pokrovsk direction, signaling the end of that brigade’s defense of the region. The fact that the 47th Mechanized Brigade suffered defeat exemplifies Ukraine’s overall defense of the Donbas.

While Ukraine’s high command claims the Kursk operation is a shaping operation to draw Russian troops from the Donbas to the region, little to no evidence supports a claim for a small, medium, or large sized redeployment of Russian forces from the Donbas to the region. By all accounts, the Kursk operation appears to be a last ditch effort to improve Ukraine’s standing ahead of negotiations.

To the extent that Ukraine maintains control over the Suzhda gas terminal, the Kursk operation remains at least partially successful. Neither the seizure of Russian territory double the amount Russia seized during the last year in the Donbas nor the highly effective operation to foreclose on Russian GLOCs in Glushko are comparable to the largess of the Donbas in terms of raw materials.

Given the fact that nearly all of the villages in the Pokrovsk direction Russia has sought to seize during its campaign from Avdiivka onward have fallen in quick succession, there is no reason to believe that Pokrovsk has any more of a chance of withstanding Russian forces than Lastochkyne, Ocheretyne, Netailove, Novoselivka Persha, or others. Based on Russia’s advances, Pokrovsk is expected to fall just like these villages. Thus begins the fall of the Donbas.