Amidst the fall of Orlivka, Ukrainian military bloggers began to bemoan the situation surrounding Novohrodivka where intense fighting has occurred. Novohrodivka. Ukrainian military bloggers began to report that the front at Novohrodivka has completely collapsed with Russian forces occupying more than 90% of the village. The entire central, southern, western, and eastern residential areas have come under Russian control.
These advances throughout the Adviivka direction continue against the backdrop of Ukraine’s Kursk operation. Largely believed to siphon troops from the Donbas to defend Russian territory in the region, the operation has resulted in little more than a trickle, if at all, for Russian redeployments, dashing hopes that Ukraine’s operations might have a significant effect on Russia’s army.
The Economist, for instance, recently published an article, confirming the author’s analysis that as a shaping operation the Kursk operation would have only limited success. In an article entitled, “The Kremlin is close to crushing Pokrovsk, a vital Ukrainian town,” the Economist states:
“The hope that Russia might respond by moving troops from Pokrovsk has been supplanted by the realisation that it has not. Ukrainian security sources confirm that while Russia has moved troops from other sections of the eastern front line, it reinforced around Pokrovsk. Ukraine meanwhile redeployed special forces units to Kursk, and is patching up the Pokrovsk front with untested formations. ‘The Russians have figured things out and aren’t taking the bait,’ complains Dublin.”
Entrusted to the defense of Pokrovsk, the 68th Brigade recently reported to the Washington Post, on the intensity of fighting in and around Novohrodivka. “Ruslan, 42, deputy commander of the 68th brigade, which is defending the front lines around Pokrovsk, said he cannot remember such intense fighting at any other point since he was drafted to the military in the fall of 2022 from a coal mine where he used to work.” Noting how the 68th Brigade continues lose ground to the advancing Russians, the Post noted how “in the last week alone, [the 68th Brigade] have retreated some six miles.” It stated five days ago how “Novohrodivka, is now the front line.”
“They are coming, and coming, and coming,” he said of Russian troops, comparing them to marching ants who press forward even as their fellow soldiers fall down dead beside them. “This is just waves of meat. It’s so nuts.”
On Thursday, @DeepStatUA, one of the most Ukrainian military bloggers central to coverage on the Ukraine war that is quoted internationally, published a post on the village, announcing that Russians had penetrated the city’s defenses. The channel stated: “Ворог просунувся біля Новогродівки, Завітного, у Торецьку та Птичому.”
The Russians are advancing in the Avdiivka direction largely along its ‘tactical heights,’ occupying high ground that provides Russian forces with multiple advantages such as increased fire control over the surrounding area, advanced reconnaissance with more ability to penetrate deeper into enemy territory, or enhanced mobility to maneuver in a direction most suitable for further advance.
It enables the Russians to make quick work of Ukrainian armor. Just last Friday, @EjShahid, confirmed, for instance, the destruction of a Ukrainian tank in the center of the village. He stated: “Заявлено про підбиття з РПГ українського танка в центрі Новогродівки, Донецька область.”
On Tuesday, @DeepStateUA, whose language suggests an acknowledge of the city’s fall, stated: “Те, що відбулося з Новогродівкою і те, що відбудеться з Селидовим повинно стати об’єктом уваги не тільки суспільства, а й відповідних органів. Досвід і відсутність покарання за Очеретине породило нову трагедію, свідками якої стає кожен з нас.”
@DeepStateUA’s remarks concerning Очеретине strike at the heart of Ukraine’s defense of the Pokrovsk direction. The Russians ability to lay siege to Очеретине led definitely to the seizure of Novohrodivka. The New York Times, for instance, noted as early as February 15th, 2024, how after “Losing Ground, Ukraine [Sought] New Positions Around Avdiivka.” These new positions were villages like Очеретине. The fall of Avdiivka led definitely to the seizure of Очеретине.[1] These cycles emphasize how continuous the collapse in the Avdiivka directions continues to be.
The rapidity of Russia’s advance is startling. The Russians were hardly on the outskirts of Novohrodivka when August began. August is now hardly over with the Russians asserting nearly full control over the village. With the fall of Novohrodivka, the Russians come closer to Pokrovsk itself, the last line of Ukrainian defense before the Dnipro. The Russians are now only 9.5km from Pokrovsk.
With Russia beginning to assert control over the ground lines of communication in multiple directions now throughout the Donbas, the fall of Pokrovsk may allow for Russian Army Groups such as Center, West, or South to coalesce. The coalescence of Russian Army Groups on a single point in the Ukraine war would be a historic first milestone for the Russian military. With coalesced Army Groups, the Russians would present an even greater threat to the Dnipro.
References
[1]- [“How One Crack in the Line Opened a Path for the Russians, New York Times, May 14th, 2024]