The appointment of Christopher Cavoil, who heads up European Command and is also NATO’s supreme allied commander on the continent, changed a great number of things for the U.S., NATO, Europe and Ukraine. The launch of a new open source analysis is one of these changes.[1]
During the course of the open source analysis, accounts like @HighMarsed, for instance, began to analyze Russian inventories for such thing as Infantry Fighting Vehicles, self-propelled or towed artillery, or tanks.[2] Among the most recent analyses for tanks, @High_Marsed published a lengthy post, detailing how Russia has withheld T-72s from refurbishment.
In a follow up article published on Forbes, one of the reasons for the withheld T-72s is that Russia does not have the capacity for their refurbishment, since their autoloader is complex.[3] The author of the article references a sanitized report published under a FOIA request to the CIA’s reading room. The sanitized report is quoted as “noting the complexity of its autoloader.” However, the sanitized report does not contain such language. Hence the explanation that Russia’s decision to withhold T-72s based on the complexity of its autoloader is complicated.
It seems far more feasible now to suppose that the underlying motivation for the withheld T-72s is a result of a more deliberate scheme. It appears as though Russia could supplement Russian for Chinese tanks, especially given the depth of depletion its stockpiles have witnessed.
In fact, Russian commentators are not writing about refurbishment but Russification. In an article published by one of the less widely read publications called Автовзгляд, an article suggesting the way in which Russian could supplement Russian for Chinese tanks is mentioned. [4] The article describes the process under which Chinese Type 96/96As tanks would have to undergo as русифицировать. He describes the process thus:
Самый же вероятный кандидат на поставки в Россию — другой основной танк из КНР: «Тип 96/Тип 96А». По своим характеристикам он может считаться аналогом наиболее продвинутых модификаций российских Т−72 или Т−80. А его пушка — копия нашей танковой 125-миллиметровой 2А46М. В Китае таких машин насчитывается порядка 2500 штук. Поэтому в случае чего восточные «братья на век» вполне могут поделиться сотнями таких танков. Главное — русифицировать меню всей их электроники и адаптировать обозначения на рабочих местах экипажа.
[4]
Alongside a much wider schematic of ‘analogs,’ the author envisions the Russification of Chinese Type 96/96As from the parts in T-72s. It thus appears to be more plausible to suppose that the decision to withhold T-72s is less related to the complexity of its autoloader than its compatibility with Chinese Type 96/96As.
If so, Russia’s decision to refurbish the more than 2,500 Chinese Type 96/96As tanks from its arsenal of T-72s would represent a significant shift in the overall development of the Ukraine war. It is already well established that China ships gunpowder to Russia. [5], [6] Should China ship Russia Chinese Type 96/96As tanks, the shipment would be the first time that China openly supplied Russia with Main Battle Tanks or armaments in general. Considered earlier in the war, it would represent a shift away from the components of warfare to arms. [7]
References
[1] – [“Allies and Open Sources: Lessons from Northern Raven, the Largest OSINT Collection Operation in NATO’s History,” Modern War Institute, 06.28.24]
[2] – [“https://x.com/HighMarsed/status/1811015708173652046“]
[3] – [“Russia Is Running Low On Tanks. So Why Are A Thousand First-Generation T-72s Still Sitting In Storage?,” Forbes, Jul 7, 2024]
[4] – [Китайские танки на Украине какая военная техника КНР может пригодится России, Автовзгляд, 24 апреля, 2023]
[5] – [Russia Doubled Imports of an Explosives Ingredient—With Western Help, WSJ, March 29th, 2024]
[6] – [China Has Helped Russia Boost Arms Production, U.S. Says, WSJ, April 12th, 2024]
[7] – [“Возможна ли закупка Россией китайских вооружений для операции на Украине,” РБК, 03.14.2022]