The appointment of Belousov, who is without a military background, came as a surprise to most following the Russian war. While at the beginning of his appointment, no one knew exactly where Belousov would focus his efforts. The first major overhaul of the Russian Defense Industrial Base (henceforth DIB) appears to be in terms of the manufacture of drones.

It appears as though Belousov first order of operations as the head of Russia’s Ministry of Defense focused on how to make a more cost effective Shahed 136/131. Russia’s new styrofoam drone, which is lighter, cheaper, easier to maneuver from within a 100 kilometer range, is one of the first projects Belousov’s transformation of the Russia DIB has accomplished. It has resulted in a situation in which Russia is now able to produce 4,000 drones a day, increasing the number of drones available for various military purposes substantially.

Reports on the new Belousov drone began to appear as early as July 26th, 2024. The Arabic news channel, Al-Arabiya, which is based in Saudi Arabia, published one of the earliest reports. In the report, the news agency stated:

“قال مسؤول من المخابرات العسكرية الأوكرانية إن الهجمات الروسية طويلة المدى على أوكرانيا بدأت تشمل طائرات مسيرة جديدة رخيصة في محاولة من موسكو لتحديد مواقع الدفاعات الجوية الأوكرانية وتصوير أي أضرار والعمل كشراك خداعية.”

The drones, which are equipped with cell phones connected to carrier networks through Ukrainian SIM cards, are used for reconnaissance, as Al-Arabiya reported. [1]

The new Russian drones come at a crucial time during the Ukrainian war for Russia. In as early as June, 2024, Ukraine’s ability to innovate neutralized the Shahed 136/131 drone threat. Ukraine created an anti-air defense network based on acoustics with more than 10,000 sensors for locating, tracking or targeting drones with its anti-air defense units. In one of the most recent attacks, Ukraine destroyed more than 89 Shahed 136/131 drones, completely eliminating the threat these drones posed to Ukraine. The number of destroyed drones at 89 is a record not just for Russia but for Ukraine.[2]

It is unlikely, however, that the new Belousov drones, which carry a much smaller warhead than the Shahed 136/131 drones, will change the new balance of power for Ukraine’s anti-air defenses. The Belousov drones are likely to provide Russia with aerial reconnaissance against Ukraine’s air fields, threatening its new fleet of F-16s. Ukraine’s receipt of F-16s follows its successful installation of the new acoustic anti-air defense system.

The Institute for the Study of War, however, has significantly downplayed the threat that Ukraine’s new fleet of F-16s is expected to bring to bear. The ISW reported, for instance, how “[the] F-16 deliveries to Ukraine will likely begin in small numbers, and materiel and training constraints will likely prevent Ukrainian forces from leveraging fixed-wing airpower at scale in 2024, as ISW has previously noted.” [3]

[1] – [“روسيا تنشر مسيرات رخيصة لتحديد مواقع دفاعات أوكرانيا الجوية,” Al-Arabiya, July 26th, 2024]

[2] – [“⚡Ukraine downs all 89 Russian drones launched in mass attack,” Kyiv Independent, July 31st, 2024]

[3] – [“1818703308359344143,” ISW, July 31st, 2024]