Russia’s advanced forces, which have advanced no less than 200 square kilometers in the month of July alone[1], have reclaimed the Ukrainian village, Klishchiivka, that Ukrainians reclaimed from Russia’s initial thrust into Ukraine at the launch of its full-scale invasion on February 24nd, 2022.*
In the more than 200 square kilometers Russia reclaimed in the month of July, 74 square kilometers were in the aftermath of the fall of Avdiivka towards Pokrovsk. More than eight villages fell: Yasnobrodovka, Novoselovka Pervaya, Evgenovka, Voskhod, Lozovatskoye, Progress, Volchye, and Timofeevka. These advances are in pursuit of Pokrovsk, the last line of Ukraine’s defense before the Dnipro where Ukraine has not been able to Surovikinize its defensive lines. It is predicted that Russia will overcome the non-Surovikinized defensive belt at Pokrovsk in the near future.
On September 17th, 2023, the New York Times announced Ukraine’s reclamation of the village during one of Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the north-eastern sector of Ukraine’s Donbas. The Times reported at that time how “Klishchiivka had been occupied by Russian forces since January, when Wagner mercenaries captured it after weeks of combat as part of the nearly yearlong battle for the nearby city of Bakhmut.” [2]
Along with Andriivka, Ukraine’s reclamation of Klishchiivka opened up the possibility that Ukraine’s forces could retake Bakhmut-Artemovsk. The Times reported: “The retaking of Klishchiivka may help Ukraine apply pressure to the Russian forces holding Bakhmut, which Moscow has devoted resources to defending even though it has been reduced to rubble. Klishchiivka, about six miles south of the city, holds a commanding position that could allow Ukrainian artillery to more accurately shell Russian forces entering or exiting Bakhmut.” [2] Ukrainian forces, however, withdrew from Bakhmut-Artemovsk towards the end of May, 2023 after the Wagner PMC captured the entire settlement.
Russia’s reclamation of Klishchiivka now is one of the many territorial gains in which Russia’s armed forces have reversed the reclamations that Ukraine made immediately after its full-scale invasion. The fall of Klishchiivka indicates that Russia is advancing rapidly from a territorial stalemate in which Ukraine’s previously reclaimed territories lie outside of Russia’s reach.
After the fall of Avdiivka, the territorial stalemate became positive. Russia began to reclaim Ukrainian reclamations. These reclamations continue, as Russia continues its advances. At a certain point, Russia is expected to regain the territories in the eastern Donbas Ukraine reclaimed through counteroffensives in the first and second year of the war. If and when it does, Russia would no longer be in a positive territorial stalemate. It would be advancing on newly claimed territories.
Turkish news agency, Anadolu Ajansı, reported that in May, 2024 Russians recaptured the territory. [3] However, Ukrainian forces forced the Russians to withdraw. The village has now fallen to the Russians.
References
[1] – [“روسيا تسيطر على 200 كلم مربع من أراضي أوكرانيا بشهر واحد”, Al-Arabiya, July 31st, 2024]
[2] – [“Ukraine Says It Has Retaken Strategic Village Near Bakhmut,” New York Times, September 17th, 2023]
[3] – [“Russia claims to have taken over Ukrainian settlement of Klishchiivka,” Anadolu Ajansı, 22.05.2024]
* The Ukrainian blogger, @War_Mapper (i.e., 1819130516223742408), recently posted a tweet stating that the more accurate calculation of lost Ukrainian territory during the month of July is 17.72% of Ukraine, a positive by 0.03%. The Ukrainian blogger approximates the actual amount to be less than 200km². The blogger estimates the amount to be at 177km². It is likely that Al-Arabiya’s calculation is a slight exaggeration.