After the fall of Rozdolivka and Shumy, the village of Vozdvizhenka is next. Crucial to Ukraine’s last remaining asphalt line of supply in the south eastern Donetsk region, the Versorgungsweg beyond Vozdvizhenka connects the agglomeration of Bakhmut-Artemovsk villages directly to Pokrovsk, the last line of Ukrainian defense before the Dnipro. This is the T0504 road that connects Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka.
The coalescence of two Russian axes, the Bakhmut and Avdiivka directions, come together on the Versorgungsweg. Should Ukraine fail to defend the village, the two Army Groups in charge of the advances in southeastern Donetsk would converge in a greater strength than in their separate axes.
It would be the first time in the history of the Ukraine war that two Russian armed groups meet. It would be far more devastating for Ukraine’s armed forces than the previous losses in the two directions mentioned above. There is no indication that Ukraine, whose morale,material and manpower are dwindling can prevent Russia’s advance on the point of coalescence.
Ukraine’s military, whose high command is under the control of U.S. led NATO commanders, have already begun to address the problem the road’s loss causes. One soldier, for instance, described how Ukraine can create as many roads as it likes so long as weather permits, as reported in Arabic by the famous AlArabiya (i.e., العربية ) news agency. A Ukrainian soldier, for instance, told AlArabiya the following: “ ووفقاً له، حتى لو تقدمت القوات الروسية أكثر نحو هذا المحور المهم، فإن المهندسين العسكريين يمكنهم إنشاء طرق إضافية جديدة. وأشار إلى أنه ‘طالما أن الظروف الجوية جيدة، فهناك طرق في كل مكان‘.”
The discussion of the weather indicates the basis for Ukraine’s strategy. The aim of the Ukrainian high command, whose reliance on the west is not straightforward, has likely decided that the best course of action is not to wait for Western weapons, which have not come in a predictable manner, but to prevent the Russians from reaching Pokrovsk before the beginning of the winter. Given the rapidity of Russia’s focused advances along the axis of the Avdiivka direction, there is a high likelihood that Russia advances rapidly on Vozdvizhenka, the area from which Russian forces would be able to establish fire control over the T0504 road that connects Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka, the so-called Versorgungsweg.
If winter arrives, Russia would be in a situation similar to the one it faced during the last winter. It is widely assumed that last winter stalledfurther Russian advances, causing Avdiivka to fall in February.
As the Russians advance towards the Versorgungsweg, historians are likely to describe the entirety of Russia’s gains–a handful of small villages (i.e., село rather than деревня) as the battle for the Versorgungsweg, as the villages whose collapse came as a result of Russia’s advance towards the road are significant, if only for the road.
