Uranium Supersedes Oil 

Uranium’s new significance as a critical rare earth mineral comes as a result of the Ukraine war. Initiated in 2014 by the Central Intelligence Agency’s direct fulfillment of the State Department’s orders under Julia Nuland, a Brzezinski extremist, the Ukraine conflict erupted into a fully blown war after Russia expanded its seizure of Crimea with a further invasion on February 24th, 2022. The war, which has raged now for more than two years, is quickly becoming a disaster in the State Department’s execution of a Brzezinski agenda in the post-Wolfowitz era of unchallenged American hegemony.

One of the consequences of the disastrous Ukraine war became the collapse of the post-WWII order the United States sought to guarantee with its “vastly superior American firepower,” [1] not a single element of which empowered the Ukrainians with the ability to hold back the Russians. In the immediate aftermath of the battle of Bakhmut-Artemovsk, which marked the most significant turning point of Ukraine war, Africa, many of whose countries France, Germany, Canada or the United States continued to exploit as colonies, began to witness profound shifts in the geopolitical makeup of the African continent. 

In Niger, whose landmass France sought to exploit without challenge, witnessed an abrupt coup d’état that resulted in the ouster of a democratically elected Western aligned leader named Mohammed Bazoum. Shortly after the military junta secured control over Niger’s fragile government, the junta immediately expelled the French together with any or all French concerns, corporations, businesses, or investments, eliminating French influence from the country altogether, an astounding social, political, economic change in a short period of time. 

A more recent example of France’s diminished influence in Africa is the election of Bassirou Diomai Faye in Senegal. The young, democratically elected leader announced shortly after his win that he would fight “French economic stranglehold” in Africa, as reported in Le Monte on March 25th, 2024. In accordance with many African nations, Bassirou is proposing to eliminate the West African CFA Franc, which is partly controlled by the Bank of France and currently circulates in eight African countries. He intends to suspend fishery agreements with the EU and renegotiate mining contracts. Senegal is significant for its location on the Atlantic coasts, as a neighbor to Morocco and as one of the countries in the Sahel corridor whose influence is not yet subject to and directly under the control of Moscow, as Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger are and it is likely that within a short period of time the country will become the center of intense competition among the great powers. 

The Journal reported as early as January 10th, 2024 in an article entitled “How France Fumbled Its Ties to Africa” that the French lost the majority of their interests due to geopolitical shifts.Together with French fumbled interests, the Nigerien military junta has sought to eliminate any or all Western influence, including the United States. The United States projects its focus on the African continent at ‘terrorism.’ However, the true aim is directed primarily at the installation, maintenance or improvement of hardware required to provide various intelligence agencies in the country with real-time data on the most important social, political, or economic developments in African countries. The military base that the United States maintains in Niger, for instance, is not a base designed for ‘combating terrorism,’ but for ensuring that America’s intelligence agencies have access to critical African SIGNIT throughout the region. A most recent report by the Institute for the Study of War’s Critical Threat Assessment, for instance, provides a graph in an image published on March 21st, 2024 called “Current and Prospective Range of United States Intelligence Reconnaissance, Surveillance Capabilities in Northwestern Africa.” 

The graph of concentric circles details the full scope of America’s eyes and ears on the continent, as the United States shifts to a new coastal strategy as noted in an article published by the Journal on January 24th, 2024 entitled, “U.S. Takes Aim at African Insurgencies.” One example is America’s involvement in Angola. [2a, 2b] The graph demonstrates that none of the proposed sites for a relocation of Niger’s Agadez Air Base such as at Bouake Air Port, Côte d’Ivoire, Cana Air Base, Benin, Air Force Base Tamale, Ghana, and Fort Lamy Air Base, N’Djamena, Chad provide the United States with significant range over Algeria, the most significant north African country in the geopolitical struggle Russia faces with the United States, as is clear below. The Agadez Air Base also provides significant access to Libya, one of the more complicated countries in the north African Maghreb region with many different countries attempt to influence its future. 

A recently published on article on the Niger government’s decision to expel American interests and together with its US military base, one of the last remaining in the Sahel corridor, drew into sharp relief the new role that uranium plays in international politics. Entitled, “Niger Ends Anti-Terror Pact with U.S. after Accusation of Iran Uranium Deal,” the article published by Wall Street Journal on March 18th, 2024 indicates that uranium rather than anything else is the decisive factor. 

It is important to note how the Journal’s online title for that article differs substantially from its print edition. In its online article the title is: “Niger Termination of U.S. Military Ties Followed Accusation of Iran Uranium Deal.” In its print title published a day later on March 18th, 2024, the title is: “Niger Ends Anti-Terror Pact with U.S. after Accusation of Iran Uranium Deal.” The shift from the open (i.e., ‘military ties’) to the more narrow description (i.e., ‘terror pact’) is a subtle attempt to cover up the true role that the United States plays in Niger. It is clear from the ISW’s CT report that the United States is interested less in combating terrorism than providing a base for the expansion of its SIGNIT in Africa. 

The article, nonetheless, states in both editions: “Niger’s decision to end its counterterrorism alliance with Washington came after senior U.S. officials accused the country’s ruling junta of secretly exploring a deal to allow Iran access to its uranium reserves, Nigerien and U.S. officials say.” The Journal explains: “The decision to end military cooperation with the U.S. was announced Saturday night by a spokesman for the Nigerien junta. It deals a serious blow to the Biden administration’s efforts to contain a sprawling Islamist insurgency in the Sahel. It could affect a $110 million base that was built by the U.S. It could also possibly force the withdrawal of more than 600 American troops still stationed in Niger.” 

The Journal notes that behind the scenes Russia persuaded the junta. “American officials had been working to salvage their relationship with Niger since the country’s military ousted President Mohamed Bazoum in a July coup, triggering restrictions on military aid under American law. The junta has been tightening ties with Russia. [It has also been tightening ties] with two of its neighbors, Mali and Burkina Faso.” These two neighbors are closely associated with Russia.

The most significant information to emerge from the article is in regards to Niger’s vast uranium reserves. “In recent months, however, U.S. and other Western officials say they had obtained intelligence indicating that the junta in Niamey was also considering a deal with Iran that would give Tehran access to some of Niger’s vast uranium reserves. The U.S. concern was that discussions on such an agreement proceeded in January, when Niger’s junta-appointed prime minister, Ali Mahaman Lamine Zeine, met with President Ebrahim Raisi and other senior Iranian officials in Tehran.” 

The Journal explains:“Western officials said in February that talks between Niger and Iran had reached a very advanced stage. A person familiar with the matter said that the two parties had signed a preliminary agreement that would allow Tehran to obtain uranium from Niger. Two officials said that the deal wasn’t finalized.” 

Niger, the United Arab Emirates, & Sanctions

Niger, whose military junta Russia influences, is likely responding to more than just the decision to limit American influence over the country. Accordingly, Niger’s significance as a pawn on the Grand Chessboard derives primarily from events far removed from Niger’s junta, Niger or Africa. The events for which the sudden, yet entirely predictable, shift in the military junta’s posture towards the continued presence of the United States in its country is related more closely with the United States, sanctions and their enforcement in the United Arab Emirates. 

The United States, whose most recent imposition of a new package of sanctions on the Russian Federation sought to severely cripple the country, is aggressively prosecuting its imposition of sanctions. The extreme consequence of its policy is its interference into the domestic business transactions of the United Arab Emirates. In the early years of the war, Dubai became one of the celebrated havens for Russian emigrés together with a hub for Russia to evade the self-destructive sanctions America has imposed on the country. More than a year into the Ukraine war, the New York Times, for instance, reported on March 14th, 2023 how “For Russia’s Elite, A Wartime Haven Materializes in Dubai.” 

On December 7th,  2023, less than six months later, the Wall Street Journal published an article entitled, “Putin Meets with Saudi, U.A.E. Rulers,” indicating how closely Dubai’s United Arab Emirates associated with Russia. In a sign of that close relationship, the Journal reported how “Putin’s plane was flanked by four Sukhoi Su-35 Russian jet fighters as it flew to the United Arab Emirates capital of Abu Dhabi, where white, blue and red vapor trails representing the colors of the Russian flag streamed behind U. A. E. military jets in a flyby in his honor.” In that article, the Journal noted how “In talks with U. A. E. President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Putin said relations between Russia and the Gulf state have reached “an unprecedentedly high level,” with the U.A. E. Russia’s main trade partner in the Arab world.” 

However, the United States began to intervene. On March 20th, 2024, the Journal published an article entitled, “U.S. Tightens Vise on Russian Money,” indicating the degree to which the United States sought to turn the tables on the Russians in Dubai. The article stated: “In December, the White House gave the Treasury Department greater sanctions power, enabling it to penalize foreign banks for dealings involving Russia’s military-industrial base.” On March 27th, 2024, Bloomberg, whose editorial board readily accepts bribes in exchange for access to its press, published an article entitled, “Dubai is Losing its Allure for Wealthy Russians.” America’s aggressive prosecution of its sanctions caused the United Arab Emirates to terminate its domestic business transactions with Russia. 

The Nigerien military junta’s decision to expel the United States from its country is therefore more likely a result of Russia’s decision to turn the tables on the United States in Niger as an act of retaliation for the United State’s decision to turn the tables on Russia in the United Arab Emirates. It is a reflection of an obvious tit-for-tat in which the United States and Russia execute their political ambitions remotely in countries other than their own. 

Uranium’s New Role 

The levers of geopolitical power shift now under currency, military contracts or oil but rare-earth critical minerals are now playing an even greater role than the ubiquitous equalization of oil. With the United States producing 12.2% of the world’s oil supply, oil is now less a decisive factor in the balance of power than in any previous period of time. The United States, for instance, outpaced the production of Saudi Arabian oil, long considered the sole leader in refining Brent crude. The Journal, for instance, reported recently how “[the] United States is set to lead the world’s supply growth for a fourth year running.” The article notes how the United State’s leadership in the world’s supply growth displaced Saudi Arabia. It states: “Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, could post the world’s largest decline for a second straight year if it continues to shoulder the bulk of the OPEC+ reduction.”[3] Oil, therefore, appears to be a less decisive factor in deciding great power relations among competing nation states now. 

A more decisive factor now appears to be rare earth minerals such as uranium. It is significant for its scarcity in America. America’s reliance on foreign imports together with those of countries like France makes it all the more decisive. In a Russian article from February 8th, 2024, with the title, “США в 2023 году закупили у России уран на рекордную сумму,” the authors note that the United States purchased a record sum of uranium from Russia. The United States purchased more than 702 tons of Russian low enriched uranium for $1.2 billion dollars, surpassing an earlier record set in 2010 when recording first began. 

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, one of the myriad of departments, bureaus, offices, or administrations within the labyrinth waste of American bureaucracy, the United States imported 12% of its uranium from Russia in 2022, compared with 27% from Canada and 25% from Kazakhstan, a C5+1 Eurasian exporter whose role in the uranium trade is expected to increase the country’s significance. Canada, however, may be no longer be in a position to be a major exporter for uranium after Burkina Faso expelled Canadian interests from the country. Canada, in whose ‘critical mineral supply chain’ there is no more than A5, Cobalt, Copper, Graphite, Lithium, Nikel, appears to be operating at a loss. [4]

The US Congress recently passed a bill banning the purchase of Russian uranium. Accordingly, the United States’ lack of uranium together with the expulsion of French, Canadian, or German interests from Africa, is expected to augment the significance of uranium to a high point.

Moreover, uranium is now significant for its weaponization in international diplomacy.Within the context of sanctions, uranium appears to have become one of the means by which Russian influence within Niger, if not throughout the world, assumed the role of a political instrument. It is equally so with the United States. The US decision to associate Niger’s sale of uranium with Iran, whether true or not, is a veiled threat designed to imply that Niger may become a target of sanctions just like Iran or sanctioned based on an association with the country. 

Uranium is also significant for its role in the great power competition for a dominating influence in countries spread throughout the MENA area such as in Saudi Arabia where the competition to secure a dominating influence over the oil rich country is related to the diversification of its sources of renewable energy, one factor in the ultimate resolution of which is undoubtedly uranium. The intensity with which Saudi Arabia, as a center for competition, is mired in the struggle for minerals is exemplified in a recently published article by the Journal. In an article published in its weekend edition at the beginning of America’s high holidays in December, the authors noted how a “Hunt for Critical Minerals Draws World Powers to Saudi Arabia.” In the article the authors note how Saudi Arabian officials see “mining as the third pillar of the kingdom’s economy.” In a testament to the significance of the hunt, the authors note how “The U.S. and Russia both signed memorandums of understanding with Saudi Arabia related to minerals.”“Saudi Arabia said at the [hunt] it has revised its estimate for its untapped mineral wealth to $2.5 trillion up from $1.3 trillion in 2016,” more than doubling in less than a decade, demonstrating the intensifying drive among competitive nations leveraging raw materials, minerals, or rare-earth supplies against the great powers in their pursuit of a dominating interest in Saudi Arabia as a sphere of influence. The revised figure includes deposits of “copper, gold, zinc, phosphates,” as well as “rare-earth metals.”  To demonstrate the significance of the hunt for critical minerals, the Journal noted how “the first Future Minerals Forum, held in 2021, attracted around 4,700 participants.” The hunt in 2023, however, drew “some 16,000 people,” making Saudi Arabia become “the Mecca of mining.” In terms of the hunt’s money, “The Kingdom expects some 75 billion riyals, equivalent to about $20 billion, worth of deals to have been struck during the three-day conference.” 

It is clear that within the context of great power relations among nations, Saudi Arabia is now second only to China. While parroting Amos Hochstein’s statement that the struggle for inorganic solid substances of natural occurrence is “not about geopolitical adversaries,” the Journal notes how “[the] U.S. has been working with other countries to curb China’s dominance across critical mineral-supply chains.” It comes at a time when “Chinese Firms Scramble to Secure Lithium,” as an article published in the Journal noted on August 18th, 2023.

Saudi Arabia, however, is significant for an altogether different reason. Saudi Arabia’s own energy sector is the subject of intense diplomatic attention. In as early as 2022, the Israeli news agency, תיק דבקה, began to report on Saudi Arabia’s decision to renew diplomatic relations with Iran. In one of the articles published by the agency, the author details how Iran not only offered to sell Saudi Arabia low enriched uranium but to assist with the construction of nuclear power plants.[5] The idea that Saudi Arabia may partner with Iran comes as a shock for four reasons. The first is that the United States desperately seeks to maintain a dominating influence over Saudi Arabia. The second is that together with the United States Israel would like ‘to normalize’ relations with Saudi Arabia in a quid pro quo where Israel utilizes Saudi Arabia for an overland trade route crossing to Israel in exchange for the United States to micromanage a new Saudi Arabian nuclear program. [6] The third reason is that United States seeks to limit Iranian influence. [7] The fourth reason is that the United States seeks to establish Westinghouse Wells as the primary contractor for nuclear power in the world. Should the United States be unable to secure sources of uranium for its projects with Saudi Arabia, the United States would not have the material it needs to execute on its commitments with the country. This has inestimable significance for Niger’s uranium. 

Uranium is also significant for its role as a critical rare-earth mineral at a time when competition nation states are entering into fierce social, political, economic, diplomatic, or scientific competition for access, control or exploration of many rare-earth minerals. The competition is so intense that as early as the end of last year, the Journal reported how “[The] struggle for the Earth’s core materials will define the geopolitical fault lines of the future.” [8] In Europe, whose history of mining would appear as though it were at the end of its lifecycle, the Journal declared the continent to have embarked upon a “mining renaissance.” [9] Just in terms of minerals alone, lithium, used for the creation of lithium ion batteries, is steadily rising in significance. A recently published article by the Journal, for instance, details their location in rocks.[10] In an echo of the warmongering invocation of a so-called “NATO lake” such as the Baltic Sea, the Journal recently published an article detailing how companies such as a “Startup Sees Lake Full of Lithium.” [11]

In terms of sanctions, Uranium, which is another precious raw material mined in Africa, proves how the nuclear power plants in “France, Hungary, Slovakia, Finland,” or other European countries cannot allow the discontinuation of Russian exports of uranium. Worth more than 200 million Euros, countries like France, whose internal stability disaffected workers continue to challenge, require a steady flow of Russian uranium, since the ability “to generate electricity by operating their nuclear power plants during an acute energy crisis is more important than the political or financial gains that could come from a ban through E.U. sanctions, at least for now.” [12] These countries, which defy American sanctions, come as calls for increased enforcement cause crises throughout Europe. [13] America’s defiance of its own sanctions through the purchase of Russian low enriched uranium underscores the fact that competing nation states cannot but confront the realities of an increasingly globalized economy, demonstrating how uranium as a raw material is now central to and complicates the conflicted geopolitical struggle for hegemony. 

It was recently reported that Russia and Algeria signed a Memorandum of Understanding for cooperating in the peaceful use of nuclear energy, initiating a mega project for decades to come. The Algerian mega project, which is a part of Russia’s larger strategy for cornering energy, currency or military contracts in African countries, is a project of deep power. In an article published in the September edition of Russia’s infamous geopolitical newspaper, Military-Industrial Complex (i.e., «Военно-Промышленный Курьер»), the authors detail how Algeria became the recipient of many Russian-made weapon systems. [14]. Deep power is any guaranteed competitive advantage one state wields over another in the geopolitical struggle for a dominating influence in an industry, country, or continent that is designed to last longer than the completion of a mere transaction, transactions, or a single contract to a decades long partnership worth billions, if not trillions over its entire lifespan. Uranium, as the underlying basis for the substance of deep power, enables a great power to assert a projection of power into competitive nation states like Algeria. 

As early as March 10th, 2023, the New York Times noted in an article entitled “Russia’s One-Stop Nuclear Stop” how “some European countries have started to step away from Russia’s nuclear energy superstore, since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.” As Europe moves away from Rosatom, Rosatom is likely to be moving towards the ‘global south,’ or countries in the MENA region, Sahel corridor and south Africa. Niger’s “vast reserves of uranium” are likely to become a key component in that strategy. 

The global ruling elite from one country to the next is scouring the earth in search of rare-earth minerals. The United States, which is far behind its fellow allies such as Sweden in the “fantasy” search of minerals in the ocean, is currently seeking authorization to mine the sea floor, as way to compete with China. [15]  These factors give rise to a situation in which uranium, a differentiating aspect within the geopolitical struggle for great power, supersedes oil in its significance. 

Within the context of uranium’s significance, the U.S., Japan, Great Britain, France, and Canada, three of the FVEY together with its traditional European and Pacific allies, are expected to augment the significance of non-Russian exports of raw or low enriched uranium from non-Russian or non-Russian aligned countries.    It is likely that given uranium’s significance against the backdrop of deteriorating Russo-American relations suppliers will begin to treat uranium like oil, reducing enrichment services to raise prices artificially, which enables a supplier to sell less for more. In that respect, countries like Kazakhstan’s and Niger to a lesser extent are bound to become ever more significant significant as a store of uranium, indicating just how many more “power plays” are still in development.[16]

[1] – [“Ukraine’s Civilians Staff a Resistance in Waiting,” New York Times, December 27th, 2021]

[2a] – [“Results of the Republic Tender,” A5, WSJ, January 24th, 2024]

[2b] – [“U.S. Derails China’s Influence in Africa,” WSJ, January 22nd, 2024] 

[3] – [“IEA Slightly Raises Oil-Demand Growth View But Cuts Supply Forecast,” WSJ, March 14th, 2024]

[4] – [“Canada Secures the Critical Minerals Supply Chain,” WSJ, March 22nd,  2024] 

[5] – [ זעזוע בוושינגטון ובירושלים: איראן מציעה לערב הסעודית לעזור בפיתוח התוכנית הגרעינית שלה. סין תומכת, תיק דבקה, 06.10.2023 ]

[6] – [חרמות יוזמה ושיתוף פעולה חשאי : כך ישראל וסעודיה הופכת מאיובות לשותפות, מעריב, 09.21.2023] 

[7] – [Saudi Uranium Enrichment Floated Under Possible Israel Deal, WSJ, September 21st, 2023]

[8] – [Materials That Move the World, WSJ, December 16th-17th, 2023]

[9] – [“Europe Embarks on Mining Renaissance,” WSJ, August 11th, 2023] 

[10] – [Are Lithium Stocks At Rock Bottom, Wall Street Journal, February 20th, 2024]

[11] – [“Startup Sees Lake Full of Lithium,” Wall Street Journal, February 13th, 2024]

[12] – [“While Piling Sanctions on Russia, Europeans Spare Some Sacred Cows,” New York Times, October 19th, 2022.]

[13] – [“Blame Biden’s Hesitancy for Stalling Ukraine’s Offensive,” WSJ, August 13th, 2022]

[14] – [“Торговец Пушками,” «Военно-Промышленный Курьер»,  14—20 Сентября, 2021. № 35 (898)]

[15] – [“China Fears Have Put Ocean-Floor Mining on Washington’s Radar,” WSJ, March 17th, 2024]

[16] – [“Power Plays: Developments in Russian Enriched Uranium Trade,” RUSI, March 14th, 2024] 

—–

The United Kingdom’s think tank, RUSI, recently published an extensive foundation on the struggle for control, access, or use of uranium. While the report details the role that uranium plays in Russia, the report does not mention the role Uranium plays in MENA (i.e., Middle East and North Africa). With Saudi Arabia, one of the swing states in the Middle East, becoming the subject of intense diplomatic efforts to forge an alliance of deep power, the role that uranium plays in the Middle East takes on significance far beyond the role that oil plays now. The United States is already the world’s leading exporter of oil, superseding Saudi Arabia. Niger’s recent announcement to expel U.S. armed forces from the country centers on the control, access, or use of its uranium. With uranium now becoming the center of attention in both the Middle East as well as Africa, the raw material supersedes oil in its geopolitical significance for the great power struggle.