After the Ukrainian counteroffensives—initiated on June 4th, 2023—reached a definitive terminus following the ‘main thrust’ on the 24th of July, the Ukrainians have, nonetheless, continued to seek a breakthrough, challenging Russia’s hold on the village of Robotyne. The New York Times announced the beginning of the ‘main thrust’ on July 27th, 2023 in an article entitled, “Main Thrust of Ukraine’s Offensive is Underway, U.S. Officials Say.” Although Ukraine’s military forces no longer have any options in terms of military strategy, the slaughter, nonetheless, continues.
In an article entitled, “Ukraine Seeks to Make Gains After Breaching Russian Lines,” The Wall Street Journal published on September 5th, 2023, the authors wrote: “Ukrainian troops are battling to break through Russian fortifications in their country’s south but even successfully piercing the line will only mark a start.”
Apart from a late start, the Western, corporate controlled media the Wall Street Journal manifests, specializes in a play on words. “A breakthrough,” as one commentator starts, “may get units through the defensive lines, but there is much more fighting before a breakout is achieved.” With a breakthrough still more is needed for a breakout.
After more than four months, however, the “Spring” counteroffensives, which is described now as a summer counteroffensive, ought to have marked the end rather than the beginning. Spanning the length of June, July, August, September, the results of the Ukrainian counteroffensive is but a reflection of the fallout from the battle of Bakhmut-Artemovsk.
Ukrainian armed forces—with the entrance of the 82nd Airborne Brigade arguably representing the third phase of the Ukrainian counteroffensive—have collided with an expansion of Surovikin’s ‘meat-grinder’ along the defensive lines in the south called ‘Surovikin lines.’ Few from the 82nd Airborne Brigade, Kyiv’s most well trained reservist brigade, appear to have survived to the present day. In the rear Russians, however, are continually “Surovikinizing” more than 270 thousand volunteer soldiers. While Russian continues to fight in the direction of Kharkov, these 270 thousands recruits are undergoing “Surovikinization” with training designed to ensure their ability to function within Russia’s strategic doctrine. (“За последние 6-7 месяцев добровольно подписали военные контракты 270 тыс. человек,” Tass, September 12th, 2023)
The London based Saudi daily, As-Sharq Al-Awsaat (i.e., الشرق الاوسط ) for instance, recently reported that in addition to these newly recruited volunteers Russia has integrated no less than 462,000 Russian forces into the active implementation of its strategic doctrine in the Ukraine war. ( “ : الاستخبارات الاوكرانية عدد الجنود الروس في مناطقها ب٤٢٠ الفا.”) These reports follow a massive buildup of tanks, mortars such as BM-21s, or satellite imagery of more than six howitzers on deck at ports near Rostov-On-Don.
While these soldiers, which have been recruited over the course of 7 months, suddenly integrate together with Russia’s existing force, the combined total amount of Russian forces in Ukraine is expected to exceed 800,000. With 800,000 troops Russia would be in a position to pivot from defensive to offense rapidly for the seizure of Kiev over the winter or during next spring, depending upon Ukraine’s manpower. Russia’s advance on Kharkov provides more of a basis for prediction that Russia seeks to advance along the lines predicted in a 2015 Stratfor map rather than on Odessa.
Many commentators have predicted that Russia plans to capture Odessa next. With its control over the Black Sea region, Russia may not have to launch a battle across the Dnipro river to lay siege to the city. Russia’s control over the borders of the Black Sea amount to more than 60% of the hard power in the Black Sea region. With a majority of control over the borders of the Black Sea, Russia already effectively controls the ports at Odessa, the most important aspect of the city. There is no military objective in Odessa Russia has not already seized in a consolidation of hard power over the Black Sea region.
Ukraine’s manpower continues to dwindle at a steady rate. The rising geo-political eye of the Fertile Crescent, Al-Mayadeen (i.e., الميادين), has consistently reported, while Kyiv has not denied, weekly losses for Ukrainian armed forces within a range of four to six thousand soldiers. On September 1st, 2023, Al-Mayadeen (i.e., الميادين) reported in an article entitled, “روسيا: خسائر القوات اوكرانيا تجاوزت ٥ الاف جندي خلال اسبوع” that Ukrainian armed forces had lost more than 5 thousand soldiers in the week prior to that article’s date of publication. In a similar report published by the Syrian news agency, Sana (i.e., سنا ), on September 9th, 2023 entitled, “الدفاع الروسي: مقتل ٥٤٠٠ جندي اوكراني واستهداف مواقع للبنية التحتية للموانئ خلال اسبوع من المعارك”, detailing how no less than 5, 400 Ukrainian soldiers fell in the week prior to that article’s date of publication. The total amount from the week before to the week after the beginning of September is no less than 10,000 soldiers. It is a little less than a thousand Ukrainian soldiers a day, reflecting the daily triple digit losses the German federal intelligence agency leaked to Der Spiegel during the battle of Bakhmut-Artemovsk. These figures signify how the Ukrainian “Spring” counteroffensive is not a collapse per se but a continuous collapse.
Ukraine is beginning to field agents of its police state in lieu of the “short trained men,” who come after territorial defense units, trained reserves, or reserves. At least from regions peripheral to the Kyiv region, agents of Kyiv’s police state entering battle obviously accelerates the continuous collapse, raising the prospect for the eventual indefensibility of the regime under the authority of Ukraine’s President, Volodymyr Zelensky.
The Italian center for defense analysis Analisi Difesa illustrates this eventual indefensibility in its article entitled, “In Ucraina gli scandali minano il fronte interno,” where one solution is to purge in-subordinating agents of the police state by way of an immediate dispatch from the internal to the external front. While the more than three purges of the Ukrainian “internal front” is contributing to the continuous collapse of Ukrainian armed forces, none have yet become the straw that breaks the camel’s back. The purge “contro 112 funzionari e commissari nelle regioni di Donetsk, Poltava, Vinnitsa, Odessa, Kiev e Lviv,” for instance, has not broken Kyiv’s back just yet.
Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense’s “Наказ” from August 18th, 2023 numbered 490 seeks to prevent soldiers with a medically verifiable exemption from service, while the recent attempt to extract more than 80,000 able bodied Ukrainians from Poland through a special extradition request may extend the continuous collapse for several more months. These recruits, who otherwise might have sought to evade service through the payment of bribes or as a refugee in Poland, are expected to augment existing Ukrainian forces but in no way other than as extremely short trained men without sufficient experience to ensure a change of state upon deployment to existing or new brigades.
In a development closer to the highest levels of the “internal front,” Zelensky recently terminated Oleskii Reznikov. Reznikov’s termination, for instance, is more a reflection of damage control over American “Ukraine fatigue” than a fallout over the course of the war, as the various newspapers immediately sought to correct Reznikov’s remarks about Ukraine receiving more than $100,000,000,000 in aid from the United States with articles specifically mentioning an amount no more than $40,000,000,000, which is far less than the stated amounts in U.S. Security Assistance from January 19th, 2023. On Ukrinform Reznikov stated on September 3rd, 2023: “Ми отримали в грошах зброї і техніки різної, набоїв, снарядів, і пострілів, я думаю, під 100 мільярдів.”
The measures Zelensky took in regards to this latest purge are final measures. Zelensky cannot continuously sack his Minister of Defense. He cannot continuously field new agents at recruitment centers. He cannot continuously expand the requirements for the draft. He cannot continuously extradite able bodied Ukrainian male refugees from Poland. The latest purge is the last purge. After these final measures, Zelensky’s regime enters a position of weakness for which there is no availing measure he can take as a remedy to the steadily dwindling rate of manpower. Zelensky’s lack of options entails the final stage of the Ukrainian war, the stage where Zelensky is no longer able to fight for lack of the last Ukrainians.
The loss of entire brigades, for instance, is sign of Zelensky’s lack of options. Zelensky for instance, recently admitted the loss of an entire brigade, the 47th brigade, as reported in an article entitled, “Вся бригада исчезла: Зеленскому сообщили о смертоносоном ударе России по ВСУ.” Similarly, the Kiev Independent noted that Ukraine’s 32nd Separate Mechanized Brigade, which formed after January, 2023, has bore the brunt of Russia’s onslaught in the Kharkov region, as reported on September 1st, 2023 in an article entitled, “New brigade bears heavy brunt of Russia’s onslaught in Kharkiv Oblast.” The article is unique, however, in its criticism of NATO training. “The style of battle in the Ukrainian countryside, blending World War I trench combat with 21st-century” Integrated Air Defenses, “are outside NATO’s wheelhouse.”
According to undisputed statistics Russia’s Ministry of Defense published at the beginning of September, the Ukrainian armed forces lost more than 66,000 thousand soldiers together with 7,600 units of weaponry, including German Leopard tanks, French AMX and American Bradleys.
There are limitations to Zelensky’s ability to field Western weaponry such as British Challengers. Ukrainian news media sources have not disputed, for instance, that among the challengers at Robotyne many have suffered. Many of Britain’s 14 Challengers, part of the armor within the arms of the 82nd Airborne Brigade, an elite, NATO trained, fully equipped Ukrainian brigade, met a quick demise from so-called Russian “Kornet” rockets. These rockets are specifically designed by Russia’s Ministry of Defense to target turrets not from any side but the top. Al-Mayadeen (i.e., الميادين) reported the loss as a historic loss in an article entitled, “ لاول مرة في تريخها ”تشالنجر ٢“ البريطانية يدمرها ”كورنت“ في اوكرانيا.” The article contains a video demonstrating how the so-called Russian “Kornet” rocket struck the British Challenger tank. The Western press has not reported on the effectiveness of Russia’s “Kornet” rocket.
More than three of Britain’s Challengers have been identified on the battlefields of Robotyne. Since a tank is a unit of production is a war economy, these are irreplaceable for Ukraine. In the absence of a Ukrainian war economy or an industry specifically designed to produce low cost units of British Challengers, Ukraine is incapable of advancing replacements from the rear like Russia, whose war economy expands well beyond the vast Russian hinterland through its strengthened railways to its neighbors in the Global South.
During the battle for Robotyne, Russia shipped a massive amount of cargo containers to India, Iran, North Korea, and Saudi Arabia on its connected railway, indicating the culmination of more than 20 years of hard work petitioning the secondary layer of Global South partners to join Russia in the expansion of its trade routes.
Aimed at reducing the carriage cost between India and Russia by 30 percent, Russia’s strengthened railways decreased the transit time from 40 days to less than half. Russia began building the railway corridor on September 12th, 2000 after Russia signed agreements with Iran, Saudi, and India. The first trip finished during the battle of Robotyne. Announced on July 4th, 2023, nearly a month after the beginning of Ukraine’s counteroffensive, multimodal service between Russia and India began. In an article published on that day by TASS entitled, “TransContainer opens multimodal service between Russia and India,” Russia described cargo as being “delivered to the terminal in Novorossisk by rail and motor transport and shipped to India once per month,” indicating regular, predictable, constant economic monthly activity between the two countries. These cargo shipments are expected to boost Russia’s economy on a monthly basis.
In an Israeli article published just a few days later entitled, “הרכבת הרוסית הראשונה עם מטען להודו הגיעה לאיראן,” the authors explain how a train called Serachs traveled more than 3, 800 kilometers through Turkmenistan on its way to Iran. The authors state: “כאמור באיראן זו הייתה הרכבת הראשונה מרוסיה בטהרן צופים כינון שיתוף פעולה הדוק יותר בהובל רכבות מרוסיה ולרוסיה.” In addition to India, Russia’s ability transport cargo contains to and from Iran enhances the country’s standing not only within the global south but in the face of the Ukraine war.
In addition to India and Iran, South Korea, for instance, is one of the countries, whom the Wall Street Journal has already accused of selling weaponry to Russia that may have already begun to ship on its railways. In an article entitled, “Kim Rolls Toward Russia to Meet Putin,” the Wall Street Journal stated “U.S. officials had said they expected Kim to soon meet with Putin, where the two could advance talks about a sale of Pyongyang’s munitions to help Moscow replenish its supplies for its war in Ukraine.” Given the fact that South Korean is expected to be supplying Russia with munitions, Iran is more than likely selling weaponry to Russia on its strengthened railways.
Saudi Arabia is one of the other countries in the global south Russia’s strengthened railways seeks to serve. Several articles published during August, 2023, the third month during which Ukrainian armed forces sought to break Russia’s first lines of defense, highlighted the successful transit of Russian cargo containers through Iran to Saudi Arabia. In an article entitled, “ اول قطار حاويات روسي يدخل ايران في طريقه الى السعودية ,” the authors explain the first Russian cargo ships delivered cargo containers to Saudi Arabia for the first time.
Russia’s strengthened railways reached historic milestones for shipping on land to India, Iran, South Korea, and Saudi Arabia during the Ukrainian “Spring” counteroffensive, indicating that the most significant development in regards to Robotyne is not the failure of the Ukrainian counteroffensive. The most significant development is the culmination of Russia’s strengthened railways.
The expansion of railways are one of the indications of imperialism as the highest stage of capitalism. In his second section of his foreword to his book, Imperialism as the Last and Final Stage of Capitalism , Lenin describes how the establishment of railways, for instance, is one of the predictive indicators of world war.
“Распределение желдорожной сети, неравномерность его, неравномерность ее развития, это – итоги современного, монополистического капитализма во всемирном масштабе. И итоги показывают абсолютную неизбежность империалистических войн на такой хозяйственной основе, пока существует частная собственность на средства производства.”
The underlying economics of the war’s causes therefore refuse the selection of a ‘just and durable’ peace that does not resolve these competing claims for markets, energy, or raw materials the railways or corridors in the secondary layers of the Global South exalt.
The primary layers, which are currently in a state of destabilization, are being resolved right now. Georgia’s legislature, for instance, seeks to impeach the president of Georgia, a former bureaucrat from France, while the president of Armenia announced his agreement to host 85 American soldiers for a joint military exercise after Russian “силовики” liberated a pro-Russian American journalist from jail in the capital of Yerevan.
The announcement of a ‘corridor’ on Saturday in the Wall Street Journal , for instance, indicates that the United States seeks to continue its competition with Russia for influence within Saudi Arabia. A further indication of its intention to compete is the announcement on Monday that the United States seeks to secure a partnership with Saudi Arabia to enable the latter to expropriate metals from Africa “for both countries’ energy transitions.” The Hebrew daily, the Calculus (i.e., “כלכליסט”), recently published an article detailing the corridor.
Entitled, “גם בלי סעודיה ישראל תקטוף את פירות הרכבת להודו,” the article raised the claim that Israel does not need Saudi Arabia for a transit corridor, indicating how the project is already controversial among its partners. With Israel already arguing for the exclusion of Saudi Arabia, the diminished chances for the transit corridor’s success become all the more doubtful, especially in the face of its challenges. Announced on September 9th, 2023 in an article entitled, “Transit Corridor Looks to Connect U.S. With Partners” in the Wall Street Journal , the U.S., for instance, is conspicuously missing from the transit corridor, as the line travels from Mumbai to Dubai, from Dubai to Riyadh, from Riyadh to Haifa, from Haifa to Piraeus. There is no line to the U.S. In addition to 1) the absence of any role the United States may play, 2) the more than three transitions from land-to-sea, from sea-to-land, from land-to-sea make a fully terra-centric route preferable, while 3) the project merely augments transit routes for the corridor countries rather than severing the influence of either Russia or China.
The attempt to circumvent Iran—a critical component to Russia’s extended network of railways—confronts these three challenges. There is little to no reason to think that a solution to these challenges is conceived as a part of the project for the transit corridor. While negotiations are underway to ensure the release of Iranian Americans in exchange for a large sum of money, the United States ought to view the opportunity to request access to Iran’s railways.
In light of both the peripheral conflicts on the horizon of the Ukraine war, as well as Russia’s expanded railways, the failed Ukrainian counteroffensive resolves nothing more than the Ukrainian manpower the Zelensky regime seeks to advance for the sake of the war’s continuation.
It does not nor can it clarify the degree to which the expansion of Russian railways or ‘corridors’ contrasts with those of America in the Global South. While Russia’s expansion of its strengthened railways is well underway, the attempt to build a transit is fraught with challenges, primarily dependent upon Saudi Arabia as the sole decisive player in the Global South.
It is clear that one most significant indicators of the prospect of peace for the Ukraine war is not merely the dwindling Ukrainian manpower but whom an exclusive alliance with Saudi Arabia favors the most for oil and railways.