On July 28th, 2022 Poland signed a major military contract for $1.7 billion in arms exports from South Korea. Hailed as South Korea’s biggest yet for arms since the beginning of the Ukraine war, the deal is set to deliver to Poland 1, 600 tanks together with no less than 50 fighter jets, a massive rearmament of the Central European country.

“It is extremely important that the first deliveries of howitzers and tanks will take place this year,” Polish Defence Minister Mariusz Blaszczak said at the signing ceremony.

Oskar Pietrewicz, an analyst with the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM), said the following: “The war in Ukraine is a stimulus for the South Korean arms industry.”

“The interest in South Korea’s offer may be even greater if one takes into account the huge disappointment of NATO’s Eastern Flank countries with the attitude of Germany.”

Among the weapons slated for delivery in the deal are variants of the K2 Black Panther tank, which is manufactured by Hyundai Rotem, and the K9 Thunder, a self-propelled howitzer which is built by Hanwha Defense.

Hanwha Defense plans to establish a branch in Poland to use for the expansion of European defense exports, including the K9, Redback armoured vehicles or guided missiles.

The first stage of the deal will involve 180 tanks and 48 howitzers, with the first deliveries this year. A second stage will include more than 800 tanks and 600 howitzers, and by 2026 both will be produced in Poland, Blaszczak said.

In keeping with its policy, Poland’s Prawo i Sprawiedliwość party vows to raise defense spending to 3% of gross domestic product and more than double the size of its army to serve as an extension of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s opposition to Russia, as its proxy war in Ukraine continues, the largest conflict in Europe since World War Two.

Poland says it is bolstering its armed forces in the face of perceived Russian aggression, and says that is “has to be ready” for what it calls its greatest threat since the Cold War.

Last year, Polish Defence Minister Mariusz Blaszczak, together with PiS party leader and Minister of National Security Jaroslaw Kaczynski, presented what is called “Plan for the Defence of the Fatherland.” The plan provides for an increase in the target strength of the Polish army from its current size at 110,000 to 250,000 professional soldiers.

Kaczynski justified the “radical strengthening of [Polish] armed forces” against a worsening security situation with Russia, its “imperial ambitions” and the “ hybrid attacks ” by Belarus. The latter refers to the previous situation on the Polish-Belarusian border, where hundreds of refugees are facing freezing cold temperatures, starvation or death. The EU and the Polish government justify their brutal border regime by declaring themselves to be the victims. After Spain, Greece and Hungary, a border fence more than two meters high is now being erected on the Polish border as a means of “securing” the Country from homeless refugees.

At that time Kaczynski presented his orgy of rearmament as an act of defence and peacekeeping, invoking the Latin proverb: “Si vis pacem, para bellum.” Uttered under circumstances far in a way different from those that prevail today, NATO’s proxy war against Russia is on the verge of spiraling out of control.

At least two dozen Russian regions have formed 40 volunteer units made up of thousands of their residents in efforts to ease Moscow’s manpower shortage in Ukraine, the Kommersant business daily reported on August 8th, 2022. The Kremlin’s recruitment drive aims to generate a battalion of about 400 contract soldiers in each of Russia’s 85 regions for a total of 34,000 fighters heading to the frontlines in Ukraine. Russian recently increased its pay for soldiers, agreeing to pay anywhere from reportedly between 130,000 rubles and 300,000 rubles ($2,100-$5,000), a significant sum of money for a Russian in the Russian Federation.

Although the Kremlin is unwilling to announce a general mobilization despite its reported losses in Ukraine, Russia is reported to be seeking to rush men to the front by reducing training requirements, offering large sign-up bonuses and greenlighting initiatives like regional battalions.

Kommersant’s sources confirm previous reports by The Institute for the Study of War, which stated as early as mid-July that “the Kremlin likely ordered Russian […] regions to form volunteer battalions to participate in the Russian invasion of Ukraine,” instead of declaring a partial or a full mobilization of the Country’s manpower. The independent Russian news media has previously reported that Russia has used the Wagner private military company to recruit in prison populations, offering money or pardons to inmates who agree to fight in Ukraine as mercenaries.

Russia’s current recruitment drive, which enabled it to scale up its manpower within a short period of time, reflects Russia’s continued efforts at staving off NATO’s proxy war, which does not appear to be swaying in NATO’s desired direction, as 1000s of Ukrainians are dying daily. As one commentator stated, “Ukraine has been suffering upwards of 1,000 total casualties per day in the Donbas since mid-April, after losing thousands of their best fighters in the battle for Mariupol. Most of these losses have been to their most experienced and toughest fighters.”

Western commentators who glorify NATO’s proxy war as a fight for Ukrainian self-determination (i.e., the right to be a member of NATO as political objective), have come to the consensus that Ukrainian forces under the current alignment of forces do not present the requisite military might with which to achieve NATO’s war aims against Russia.

In an article entitled, “The Dark Scenario: Ukraine’s Military Can’t Beat Russia And Collapses,” one commentator stated unequivocally: “Though many things seem to be trending against Moscow, for very practical reasons – of which few Westerners are aware – Russia has a plausible chance of winning its war against Ukraine, while Kyiv has virtually no such path.”

He continues: “The risk to the Ukrainian government and viability of the state, however, goes up to dangerous [heights] if Putin is able to maintain sufficient force, equipment, and logistics to press the [Ukrainian Armed Forces] to the point of breaking. As more time passes, it becomes increasingly irrelevant how many howitzers or rocket launchers the West gives Kyiv, because if this scenario manifests itself, there won’t be enough of a Ukrainian force remaining to adequately employ them.”

The commentator explains that despite the West’s attempt to train soldiers, “training a military organization at company or battalion level to fight as a team requires considerable training, over months, and even that must start with experiences sergeants, lieutenants, and captains.”

“You can’t “create” experienced leaders, they have to be grown over time, and there is no shortcut for creating them. Thus, the more Ukraine loses their experience troops in leadership positions, the less capable their overall force will be, no mater how many BTGs they eventually fill with new personnel.”

With Ukrainian Armed Forces poised to collapse for lack of logistics, training at the company or battalion level, or a central command to coordinate logistics with company or battalion level strategy or tactics, the Ukrainian war is set to spiral out of control on a deeper level than any previous level. The instability of the war threatens to draw into its ambit countries such as Poland to further NATO aggression.

On the border with Ukraine and Belarus, Poland, in addition to the deal with South Korean, has also been buying additional Abrams tanks from the United States. In July 2022, Poland managed to secure purchase for more 116 used Abrams tanks from the United States, a major ally in NATO. It means that Poland’s arsenal of tanks exceeds 22 battalions, where 44 tanks are required to form a battalion. As of 2017, the Polish Army boasted no less than 1,009 tanks (2017) including 249 Leopard 2 tanks (117 Leopard 2A4, 105 Leopard 2A5, 25 Leopard 2PL, 2 Leopard 2NJ), 232 PT-91 tanks, that underwent modernization in 2016, and 328 T-72 tanks, while many of the more than 230 of the T-72s, which were upgraded by the Bumar-Labedy arms manufacturing plant, were shipped to Ukraine. With the incoming Abrams tanks from the United States of America and the new shipment of tanks from South Korea, Poland, a NATO member, is set to more than double the number of tank battalions in its military.

NATO powers are aggressors. The military alliance has massively rearmed in recent years. Accompanied by a build-up of troops on NATO’s eastern flank, the border with Russia, the largest manoeuvrers thus far are: “Trident Juncture,” “Defender 2020,” “Defender 2021,” “Sea Breeze,” and “Winter 20”. All of these manoeuvrers are designed to project a posture of intimidation against Russia, who has claimed that can longer succeed territorial loses to NATO.

In regards to strengthening ties with NATO, Defence Minister Blaszczak, for instance, emphasized at the inauguration of the 1st US Infantry Division’s Forward Command Post in Poznan, Poland, in early October that expanding US troop presence in Poland was one of his priorities in office, extending policy for an increase of more than 2,000 U.S. soldiers in Poland under President Trump. Poznan serves as the command centre for all US units operating on NATO’s eastern flank as part of the “Atlantic Resolve” rotational deployment.

Poland is currently locked in a dispute with Germany over the supply of tanks called Ringtausch deal . Poland currently demands significantly more advanced battle tanks from Germany than the German government is offering as compensation for Soviet models supplied to Ukraine.

Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak said in an interview that despite the German government’s desire to deliver 20 Leopard 2A4 tanks to Poland, Warsaw would like at least 44 tanks to equip an entire tank battalion.

Germany’s Leopard 2A4 is the most popular version of the tank. 695 tanks were built between 1985 and 1992, while the remaining machines from previous versions were upgraded to the 2A4 level. Thus, until 1994, Germany had a total of 2,125 Leopard 2A4s. The Netherlands purchased another 445 tanks, and Switzerland produced under license 380 Panzer 87 Leopard (Pz 87) tanks.

Germany’s Leopard 2A4 tanks are equipped with the Israeli Trophy active protection system (APS). The main function of the system is to ensure protection from from anti-tank missiles. According to official information from the Israeli company Rafael, Trophy APS has over 1,000,000 working hours with more than 5,300 live shootings have been carried out, some in combat conditions, some during tests.

Israeli Rafael’s Trophy APS works by providing an imaginary balloon at 360 ° in azimuth through dozens of sensors that detect all known incoming threats of chemical energy (CE) – including recoilless rifles, ATGMs, AT missiles, HEAT tank cartridges, and RPGs. It works in a fairly wide range with simultaneous execution of dozens of tasks, monitoring hazards from all possible positions in 360 ° azimuth. Integrated with solutions for communication or electronic warfare, the system pre-defines an enemy or friendly zone, troops, and weapon systems.

The dispute regarding the Ringtausch deal reveals the interests at ends with each other over rearmament. A report in Suddeutsche Zeitung on a letter written by Christine Lambrecht to the Polish defense minister, outlines Germany’s response to the demand for more than 20 tanks in Ringtausch deal .

“Compensation from the Bundeswehr’s resources is not possible due to our own shortages and the fulfillment of allied obligations,” Lambert pointed out.

With countries bordering each other or the Ukraine engaged in a massive rearmament, while Russia’s mobilizing volunteer units from nearly every region in the Russian Federation, at the same time that Ukraine’s own military forces appear to have lost confidence among Western commentators, the Ukraine war is becoming less and less a contained conflict than out of control, causing countries like Poland or Germany, whose interests in NATO Russia may not be overcome, to enter into the war overtly.

PiS’ demand for rearmament underscores the class nature of it as party. For weeks in 2021, doctors and medical staff mounted the “Białe miasteczko” (White City) protests for improvements in the ailing health care system, only to hear from the Ministry of Health that their demands could not be financed for lack of money. On the other hand, there are apparently endless resources for military rearmament, especially no less than $1.7 billion.