Suvorov General Dvornikov’s Entrance into the Ukrainian War Signals New Stage
On April 4th, 2022 the Kremlin nominated General Alexander Dvornikov the head of the Russian central command in Ukraine. Previously the head of Russian armed forces from the outset of Russia’s defense of Syria’s Bashar Al-Assad regime since 2015, for whose successful leadership of which Dvornikov received Russia’s highest military honor “Hero of the Russian Federation,” General Alexander Dvornikov’s entrance into the leadership of the Russian central command now signals a new stage in the Ukrainian war.
Dvornikov
Dvornikov began his military career in 1978 at the age of 16 when he enrolled in the “Ussuriysk Suvorov Military School,” (i.e., “Уссурийское суворовское военное училище”), a military institute of higher learning now under the administration of the Russian Federation’s Ministry of Defense (“Министерства обороны Российской Федерации”) rather than the Ministry of Internal Affairs (i.e., “Министерство внутренних дел”) in Ussuriysk, a city on the extremity of the Far Eastern Federal District, Primorsky Krai (“Приморский край”), whose administrative center is the well known city, Vladivostok (“Владивосто́к”). Described as the “Far Eastern Ussuriysk Suvorov Military School” (i.e., “Дальневосточное суворовское военное училище”), the school’s name derives from a practice developed during the Soviet Union to train its military cadets in the name Alexander Suvorov, a well-known 18th century general. Cadets trained at a Suvorov military school become a Suvorov (i.e., “Суроровец”). In 1982 Dvornikov became a Suvorov (i.e., “Суроровец”).
Upon completion in 1982, Dvornikov enlisted in the Far Eastern Military District (i.e., “Дальневосточный военный округ”). Ascending in ranks from commander of a platoon to a company, from company to a battalion. In 1991 Dvornikov continued his education completing M. V. Frunze Military Academy (i.e., “Военную орденов Ленина и Октябрьской Революции, Краснознамённую, ордена Суворова академию имени М. В. Фрунзе”).
Prior to the collapse of the Soviet Union, Dvornikov enlisted in the so-called, Group of Soviet Forces in Germany (i.e., “Гру́ппа сове́тских войск в Герма́нии” / “Gruppe der Sowjetischen Streitkräfte in Deutschland”) in 1991. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, from 1992 to 1994 Dvornikov became the 154th commander of the 6th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade (i.e., “6-я отдельная гвардейская мотострелковая бригада”). For the 1st Guards Sevestopol Regiment under the Order of Alexander Nevsky Red Banner (i.e., “1-й гвардейский стрелковый Севастопольский Краснознамённый ордена Александра Невского полк”), from 1995 to 2000 Dvornikov became head of the regiment’s command until later becoming its commander.
Dvornikov participated from November 1999 to April 2000 as commander of the 1st Guards Motor Rifle Brigade (i.e., “1-й гвардейский мотострелковый полк”) in the Chechen war.
May 9th 2022 Theory
Analysis of his role in these roles leads many to claim Dvornikov is an executioner. Echoing the sentiments of paid CNN analyst Mark Hertling, Ukrainian news sources describe Dvornikov as a butcher (i.e., “Палач”) for his role in both the Chechen and Syrian wars in murdering the civilian population. In an interview with CNN, Hertling described Dvornikov as “the kind of executioner that we’ve seen prosecute these kinds of campaigns where there’s an awful lot of civilian attacks, civilian destruction, chaos.”
Hertling is one of the major proponents of a May 9th theory. The Western and Middle Eastern presses continue to claim that Vladimir Putin’s designation of Dvornikov is designed from the outset to ensure Russia takes control of east Ukraine in anticipation of celebrations for the holiday on May 9th, 2022, the day World War II ended in 1945.
The May 9th theory is not only mistaken but underestimates the true role of Dvornikov’s nomination for Ukraine. Since the Ukrainian conflict contains elements to those found in the Syrian conflict, Vladimir Putin intends to leverage Dvornikov’s experience in Syria against a continuously evolving theatre of war in Ukraine.
One of these elements is the Western supply of weapons. Another is cross-border raids resulting in the loss of Russian air forces. On 24 November 2015 at 9:24 am, for instance, en route on a return flight to Syria’s Khmeimim airbase, a patrolling Turkish Air Force F-16 fighter jet obliterated a Russian Sukhoi Su-24 aircraft with tail number 83.
Throughout the course of the Russian Federation’s defense of Bashar Al-Asad’s regime in Syria, Israel’s Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) targeted military objects in Syria, especially around Russia’s Khmeimim Air Base . On September 17th, 2018, for instance, the IDF’s cross border raids on Syrian and Lebanese military objects climaxed when four Israeli F-16 fighter jets targeted a weapons facility near Latakia, Syria during an operation codenamed “Northern Shield”. The Israeli fighter jets exploited a Russian IL-20 ELINT reconnaissance plane en route to the landing strip at the Khmeimim Air Base as a shield against Syria’s air defense systems during the attacking, causing 15 Russian servicemen to die after the Syrian air defense systems targeted the IL-20 ELINT instead of the Israeli fighter jets. In response Russia required Netanyahu to provide an explanation.
Putin’s Nomation
Vladimir Putin’s immediate goals with respect to Suvorov Dvornikov’s designation are not propaganda for the holiday on May 9th, 2022. No honest military strategist or tactician could ever expect from the current state of the Russian central command’s results that Dvornikov could capture Kiev within such a short period of time. In opposition to celebrations, Vladimir Putin’s designation comes from an analysis of the Russian army’s heavy losses against vast territorial gains. Although the Russian Federation’s army’s territorial advances result in a flank protected by a land bridge (spanning the border of Russia with Ukraine), the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, nonetheless, reports the Russian Federation’s army as having reported staggering losses. Ukrainian forces destroyed more than 756 tanks, 163 helicopters, 144 planes, causing the death of more than 20,000 soldiers. 17 Russian commanders have perished. Although, for instance, the Russian Federation’s army’s seized Mariupol, capturing 256 Ukrainian marines, the army’s inability to immediately quell resistance at the Azovstal Metallurgical Combine Azovstal raises doubts as its effectiveness in close urban combat like that of the Syrian civil war. Dvornikov’s experience with close urban combat in Syria is key here.
Market
In addition, Putin’s nomination of Suvorov Dvornikov’s comes on the heels significant events within the market. The first of these significant events is the course of the Russian rouble. Less than a week from the day Russian invaded Ukraine, the Russian Ruble traded a dollar for 80 but within less than two weeks the Russian Ruble fell, trading a dollar for 143. Subsequently, the rising cost of energy offset the losses in the conversion, causing the Russian Ruble to return to its previous value by the beginning of April, dramatically shifting from loss to gain by fifty percent either way within a short period of time. The rising cost of energy contributed 321 billion dollars to the Russian economy within that period of time. The rise in the price of oil, gas, and coal at the outbreak of the war caused panic the in market. Although the Biden administration’s sanctions sought to collapse the Ruble, the sanctions regime merely strengthened the Russian Ruble, indicating that Russia’s economy is capable of an enduring war effort.
The second of these events is European sanctions. Although the European Union approved new sanctions against Russia, including a ban on coal imports starting in August 2022, the consumption of Russian energy represents no less than a quarter or more of Germany’s energy consumption. Despite reduction in imports of oil, gas, or coal, Germany’s consumption of Russian energy continues (e.g., Russian oil accounts for 25% of German imports, albeit down from 35% prior to the invasion; gas imports have been cut to 40% from 55%; hard coal imports were down to 25% from 50% before the invasion). European sanctions have failed to disable the Russian war effort.
Conclusion
Vladimir Putin’s decision to nominate Suvorov Dvornikov is a strategic decision based on the results of an analysis of Russia’s ability to engage in a protracted war in Ukraine against the backdrop of a strengthened Ruble. It comes from an examination of Russian energy consumption aboard; it takes into consideration Russia’s land bridge over its loss in tanks, helicopters, planes, or personnel. It is not the outcome of a desire to create propaganda for Russia’s holiday on May 9th, 2022 through the immediate seizure of Kiev. Dvornikov’s entrance into the Ukrainian war, therefore, signals a new stage in the Ukrainian war.